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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@stockgutter

SG on X

$DBI out with a beat-and-raise, strong commentary: "Our second quarter results represent significant improvement in profitability year-over-year, highlighted by meaningful gross margin expansion as well as impressive sales growth in our Brand Portfolio segment," said Doug Howe, Chief Executive Officer. "We remain focused on generating long term value for our shareholders and are encouraged by the progress we are making against our strategic plan. These efforts have contributed to improved retail trends and a positive start to the third quarter, giving us confidence in raising our full year guidance." This is a stark contrast to rival $SHOE, which is puking on poor results and citing heavy promotional activity, and suppliers $NKE and $DECK which are testing 52-week lows.
@negligible_cap

Negligible Capital on X

$SHOP is down almost 15% in the last couple days on Agentic concerns. Per JPM: “We believe there are three key AI agent developments driving incremental concern: 1) Instinct, which remains in closed loop beta and handles features including email, calendar management, & select commerce transactions; 2) SPCX’s Grok Bot beta, which executes real work across apps & websites used by employees, w/bots operating app interfaces directly, retaining memory, and coordinating with one another; & 3) Meta Muse, powered by Muse Spark. Muse can execute daily tasks & select commerce transactions, w/payment infrastructure support from Link by Stripe, w/Shop Pay coming soon. Within emerging consumer AI agents, we view META as the most formidable across the agentic commerce stack given the company’s repository of data across tens of millions of advertisers & 3.5B+ DAPs, and Meta Muse’s leading price-performance value proposition.”
@negligible_cap

Negligible Capital on X

Sure $META Muse is good. Really good even. I had it go through my entire email last night and unsubscribe me from dozens of promotions and it only used around 10% of the free token budget But Instinct is also really good and didn’t need to pay Alex Wang a billion dollars to get there. And what happens when $GOOG releases their version? Being the first mover isn’t much of an advantage anymore. Nonetheless Meta Connect will be exciting to see in 2 weeks and expectations are very high for Watermelon

Investor Letters

All letters

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11B
Bearstone 8 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks
DLTR · long

Dollar Tree INC

Dollar Tree is long after divesting Family Dollar, separating its stronger banner from its weaker business.

DLTR $23B
Value Investors Club

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $610B
Rebound Capital 9 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 13 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 13 clicks

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