Sunday, October 25, 2026

WD 361: Brazil, JetBlue Bankruptcy, Mexican Airlines Merger

Brazil’s Lula victory leaves Nu and Inter’s thesis intact, while JetBlue heads toward bankruptcy and Mexican airlines pursue a merger.

JBLU $964MNU $73B

Ian’s Insider Corner Oct 25 11 clicks

Oct 25 AXP $211B

American Express: P&L Slowed, Consumer Didn’t

Librarian Capital's Research Library 3 clicks

Oct 25 SSTK $162M

💥Is Getty a Prepack in Name Only?💥

PETITION 4 clicks

From X

@MaiusPartners Oct 20 1 click

Maius on X

Here is another interesting one: $CRWV monetizes at $15 bn/GW and ends up with a negative NPV, so capital markets penalize it. $SPCX monetizes at $50 bn /GW with arguably the same client base (shorter-duration contracts). If push comes to shove, which contracts do you think said clients will terminate first?

@DeepSailCapital Oct 19 5 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

$ARKK vs $SPY vs $QQQ by year. https://t.co/XEaaaCTQvL

@Mr_Neutral_Man Oct 19 2 clicks

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

@Menckenist @rippercatcher Very interesting. What's the typical mix of a $WD loan? Is it moslty fixed rate with 5-7 year maturity? How much of it is the type that finance the S2 and Tide capital where deals were done at 3% cap with floating rate debt greatly appreciate this!

@BarbarianCap Oct 19

Barbarian Capital on X

Silgan to Combine With Trivium Packaging in $3.4 Billion Deal $SLGN https://t.co/XWQSkZuUO5

@BarbarianCap Oct 19

Barbarian Capital on X

Germany’s Merck to Buy U.K. Biotech Silence Therapeutics for $1.3 Billion $SLN https://t.co/FXr0mtRMow

@BarbarianCap Oct 19 2 clicks

Barbarian Capital on X

H.B. Fuller Rejects Ancora’s Latest Acquisition Bid, Plans to Consider Selling Noncore Businesses $FUL https://t.co/L8b85qb666

@BarbarianCap Oct 19 6 clicks

Barbarian Capital on X

Unilever Agrees to Sell Welly Bandage Business to Private-Equity Firm $UL https://t.co/yFW742mFrr

@StableBread Oct 19 1 click

Fajasy on X

From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.

Philip Morris International: Ho-hum Hrmm?

Philip Morris posted 7% organic Q3 revenue growth and 10% operating-income growth as 9.1% cigarette pricing offset flat volumes, while IQOS…

PM $314B

Invariant Oct 25 12 clicks

Meta: A Strong Quarter Behind A $9.9 Billion Legal Charge And $35 Billion Of Capex

Meta posted 26% revenue growth and $9.89 billion in legal charges while funding $35 billion of capex, as AI lifts ad pricing and pressures…

META $1.8T

Tim Travis Oct 25 1 click

Signet Jewelers (SIG): The Next Dillard’s?

Signet Jewelers cut its share count from 87 million to 38 million since 2012 as short interest reaches 15%, amid a hated diamond market.

SIG $4.5B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 25 14 clicks

Avalo Therapeutics: Contrarian 'Buy' Ahead Of Abdakibart's Phase 3

Avalo Therapeutics' Abdakibart enters a pivotal hidradenitis suppurativa trial after positive LOTUS data, with monthly dosing and…

AVTX $364M

Myriam Alvarez Oct 25 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B

CV's Substack Oct 24 9 clicks

Expert Call | AI Server OEM: 2026 xAI Orders, GB300 Price Hikes & B300 Margin Gains

Super Micro’s 2026 xAI rack orders, GB300 price increases and B300 mix frame its gross-margin outlook.

SMCI $23B

P Equity Research Oct 24 7 clicks

I went through all 142 companies in Value Line this morning. Here are the 6 that made it

Six Value Line small caps including Blackbaud, Marqeta, Ranger Energy and Definitive Healthcare trade on net cash, buybacks, low multiples…

BLKB $2.5BMQ $2B

Calvin Blissett Oct 24 76 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $631B

Rebound Capital Oct 24 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B

Doomberg Oct 24 9 clicks

Applied Materials: Buy The Engineering Powerhouse Behind AI

Applied Materials targets AI-driven demand for advanced logic, DRAM and packaging, supported by services revenue and operating leverage…

AMAT $314B

Dhierin Bechai Oct 24 2 clicks

JBFCY · long

Jollibee Foods CORP

Jollibee Foods trades at PHP 144, about 56% below its January 2019 high, framing a long thesis on the Philippine restaurant operator.

JBFCY $2.5B

Value Investors Club Jul 27 1 click

Netflix's Apocalypse Fears Overly Done - Cash Cow With Renewal Prospects

Netflix pairs international engagement, free cash flow and buybacks with plans for double-digit revenue growth, margin expansion and larger…

NFLX $511B

Juxtaposed Ideas Oct 24 8 clicks

AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap

CoreWeave’s rising debt yields and fading confidence in AI data-center economics frame a weekly review of Meta, Tesla, SpaceX, Netflix,…

CRWV $30BTSLA $1.5T

Steve Eisman Oct 23 28 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $30B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 23 12 clicks

DigitalOcean's AI Flywheel: Unleashing Massive Growth Potential For Bold Investors

DigitalOcean is pivoting toward affordable AI infrastructure and inference workloads, targeting share from AWS and Google Cloud amid…

DOCN $11B

Star Investments Oct 23 9 clicks

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings - Revenue Up 138% On The Datacenter Power Race

Bloom Energy’s Q3 FY26 revenue rose 138% to $1.24 billion as datacenter power orders lifted operating margin to 18%; capex drove $181…

BE $56B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 23 9 clicks

Philip Morris: Taking the Fight to the U.S.

Philip Morris reported Q3 growth across heated tobacco, combustibles and e-vapor in Europe while gaining U.S. nicotine-pouch share.

PM $314B

Librarian Capital's Research Library Oct 23 3 clicks

Amazon’s Trainium Takes a Strike at the Training King

Amazon’s Trainium3 adds native PyTorch training support, targeting CUDA-trained researchers with standard APIs, eager mode and…

AMZN $2.7T

SemiAnalysis Oct 23 7 clicks

Alphabet: Gemini 4 Argon Is Coming For ChatGPT's Lunch

Alphabet's Gemini 4 Argon aims to undercut rival AI models using proprietary TPUs, while Android, Siri and Google Cloud distribution…

GOOGL $3.9T

Dustin Quasney Oct 23 3 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $30B

Net Interest Oct 23 11 clicks

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Maius on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Fajasy on X

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