Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Sunday, October 25, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Specifically on $DOCU which is approaching levels not witnessed since 2021. Not only is there the rates sensitivity (usually software long duration, higher rates should hurt (been opposite this rate move for now) and the exposure to AI threats (how hard is it to rewire an esignature) even if you want to put those two aside, the business has a significant exposure to the real estate (mortgage, refi, etc) industry and that by all accounts is not performing well (see starts data today, number of existing closings, etc)... seems like this lack of pricing fundamental developments of the business is the tell tale that the move is not based in anything more than a squeeze it would seem. Would love to know from any buyers, why buy here, and what causes you to sell (purely momentum?) It would seem a deep rerating (the opposite from last earnings set up) might be coming for the software trade (especially if AI trade comes back to close out the year). Upsetting they are so inversely correlated, because AI rate of change spending levels does not matter, current AI is enough to present problems for these software providers, at some point that linked should break as AI spend less still won't save software names from their problems
@convequity 7 clicks

Convequity on X

Networking, not compute, now decides custom AI chip wins, and in our view that is Broadcom's ($AVGO) edge. As GPUs become more like specialized AI processors, matrix compute looks much the same everywhere. At 224G high-speed chip connections (SerDes), only Nvidia ($NVDA) and Broadcom can do it. If you want a custom chip, you go to Broadcom. That is why we avoid Marvell ($MRVL). A cheaper design partner is not necessarily cheaper overall: weaker connections and networking compound costs after deployment, resulting in higher total system costs. The bottleneck is moving from the switch to the optics. Lasers and optical signal-processing chips are short, and Broadcom can bundle priority optical supply with its custom chips, even for customers running Nvidia GPUs. Nvidia's lack of optical know-how is becoming its biggest disadvantage, and we expect Broadcom to take more share from it for years to come.

Investor Letters

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 9 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $616B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 9 clicks
JBFCY · long

Jollibee Foods CORP

Jollibee Foods trades at PHP 144, about 56% below its January 2019 high, framing a long thesis on the Philippine restaurant operator.

JBFCY $2.5B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $30B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $30B
Net Interest 11 clicks

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