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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run rate and customer wafer prepayments through 2027.

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 6 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$NVDA is in a bind. In our view it needs enterprise AI adoption to grow quickly, but a typical enterprise cannot afford Nvidia's GPUs and does not have the resources to build and run an Nvidia stack directly. So enterprises take the cheaper and more manageable option and access AI through the hyperscalers. They skip the large upfront cost, and they can run inference on the hyperscalers' custom ASICs, or at least have that option versus Nvidia's GPGPUs. In our view, those ASICs are the more efficient inference choice where a hyperscaler offers them. To curtail that, we think Nvidia would have to cut GPGPU prices sharply enough to make direct enterprise adoption realistic. That means lower margins. Dell ($DELL) was supposed to be the way around the bind, a channel that puts Nvidia compute in front of enterprises that will not build the stack themselves. We think Dell has mostly used the relationship to secure GPU supply and grow its own revenue and margins, not to open the smaller enterprise market Nvidia needs. Palantir ($PLTR) is still the exception on enterprise AI adoption, not on buying Nvidia compute directly. Its US commercial revenue grew 149% year on year last quarter, accelerating from 133% the quarter before. Outside Palantir and coding agents, we see little enterprise success. The bind stands. Direct enterprise adoption of Nvidia compute is still progressing very slowly, and we do not see a way out that leaves margins where they are.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Pretty crazy Reuters piece on the global selloff. - October 22 marked the 1st time since the COVID crash that long/short, systematic, and multi-strategy hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs ALL lost more than 1% in a single day. - Tech-focused hedge funds: down ~10% in October - Asia-focused hedge funds: down ~9% in October There’s separate interviews where Citadel/JP Morgan have been saying retail has been the ones buying the dip in semiconductor, neocloud, and memory stocks. And the stocks bought by most retail were $NBIS, $SNDK, and $TSM. Reuters stated this downturn triggered institutional deleveraging events among hedge funds. Quite the divergence, I do think there’s been a ton of irrational selling now, hedge fund deleveraging seems to be a major contributor.

Investor Letters

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Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $616B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $96B
Doomberg 5 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 10 clicks
TCEHY · long

Tencent Holdings LTD

Tencent, valued near $500 billion, is a long idea built on its Chinese gaming, social-network and advertising franchises.

TCEHY $449B
Value Investors Club

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B
Net Interest 8 clicks

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B
Best Anchor Stocks 12 clicks

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