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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run rate and customer wafer prepayments through 2027.

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 9 clicks

From X

@ChrisCamillo 3 clicks

Chris Camillo on X

One of the most important disciplines in investing is constantly updating the best argument against your own position. Not dismissing it. Not looking for reasons it’s wrong. Actually understanding it well enough to decide how much conviction your own thesis deserves. $AMZN has badly lagged the market and many other AI names recently, and I think the counter thesis has evolved. The biggest new threat is agentic commerce. Meta’s Muse and other AI agents could increasingly control product discovery and purchasing, potentially weakening Amazon’s retail and advertising moat. That’s real. But I think it plays out slowly, Amazon will adapt through its own agents, including Project Moonraker, or partnerships that are seeking access into and monetization from the world’s largest ecommerce platform, and in an agent-first world the upside to AWS, Trainium, Graviton and Amazon’s broader AI infrastructure business could ultimately more than offset the advertising dollars at risk. Then there’s Anthropic. A recent barrage of negative headlines around slowing growth and Meta/Microsoft reducing Claude usage has spilled over into $AMZN sentiment. Again, worth taking seriously. But much of that narrative looks incomplete. Anthropic’s revenue growth remains extraordinary, its IPO appears very much alive, and its massive long term commitment to AWS remains intact. We are still early and one can make a strong argument that AWS has more to gain from an open source first AI world than it would lose from Anthropic’s and OAI’s relative weakness, if it even plays out that way. And now sharply higher diesel prices create another near term headwind to Amazon’s shipping margins. That’s real too. But either fuel prices normalize or as with past cost inflation Amazon eventually passes much of the higher cost through while continuing to drive down fulfillment costs. I don’t need the counter thesis to be wrong to own $AMZN. I just need the bull thesis to be more right.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Alpayana, a private Peruvian mining group, asked for 19.9% of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU) when management was “thinking something probably below 9.9,” per CEO Jason Jessup. On August 28, 2026, Alpayana, chaired by Alejandro Gubbins, bought 62,356,682 shares at CAD$2.25/share for US$99M. The US$99M more than quadrupled Magna’s cash at the time. Alpayana runs six underground mines in Peru and Mexico, most of them bought from other miners, including the Los Quenuales mines from Glencore $GLNCY in December 2022 and Sierra Metals, a copper-zinc miner, for ~US$176M in 2025. While it holds at least 10%, Alpayana can join future equity raises and top up after dilution, and it gets one board nominee or an observer. Jessup says Magna’s pre-deal plan already funded Levack, its flagship restart project, from cash and the cash flow of McCreedy West, its producing mine. So the US$99M mainly spares Magna from “delaying the startup construction at Crean Hill,” its permitted nickel mine, “by 1 or 2 years,” and gives it “a bit of a war chest” for acquisitions in Sudbury, Ontario, where its mines are. He also says Magna “could have five mines in production in 5 years and not have to ever do another financing again.” Neither restart study is out yet (both are due in the first half of October), so the claim rests on capital budgets investors haven’t seen. After the deal, Alpayana holds 19.9%, institutions 47.4%, retail investors 26.9%, and management and directors 5.8%. The institutional stake includes the 16.0% held by Dundee Corporation $DDEJF, a Toronto investment company.

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Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 9 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $30B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $30B
Net Interest 11 clicks
TCEHY · long

Tencent Holdings LTD

Tencent, valued near $500 billion, is a long idea built on its Chinese gaming, social-network and advertising franchises.

TCEHY $451B
Value Investors Club

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B
Best Anchor Stocks 14 clicks

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