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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run rate and customer wafer prepayments through 2027.

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 9 clicks

From X

@convequity 8 clicks

Convequity on X

We see Nova ($NVMI) as a potential next-generation KLA ($KLAC), and we are backing it to take a larger share of semiconductor process-control spending. Its wins with leading chipmakers are strengthening that case. A leading global foundry has selected Nova’s materials-measurement tools for production of its next generation of transistors. Another chipmaker has adopted a different Nova platform for the same transition. These wins show Nova securing a place in the manufacturing processes behind more advanced chips. KLA’s broader process-control business has a strong emphasis on finding and analysing manufacturing defects. Nova is more concentrated on measuring chip dimensions, material composition and the chemistry used in production. KLA also competes in these areas, but they are more central to Nova’s business. These measurements help manufacturers understand whether each production step is delivering the intended result and where adjustments are needed. As logic chips and memory stacks become more complex, manufacturers need tighter control over the structures they build and the materials they use. Small variations can hurt performance or reduce the number of usable chips. We expect this to increase demand for Nova’s measurements and create more opportunities for its tools to become essential to production. In our view, the Western semiconductor supply chain badly needs new entrants. Equipment leaders $AMAT, $KLAC, $LRCX and Tokyo Electron, design-software vendors $SNPS, $CDNS and Siemens, and $TSM in manufacturing are too cautious and slow to match the pace of startups and highly driven Chinese challengers. Protecting existing products and the returns on past investments can make these incumbents reluctant to pursue technologies that threaten their established businesses.

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Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $96B
Doomberg 9 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B
Net Interest 11 clicks
TCEHY · long

Tencent Holdings LTD

Tencent, valued near $500 billion, is a long idea built on its Chinese gaming, social-network and advertising franchises.

TCEHY $449B
Value Investors Club

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B
Best Anchor Stocks 14 clicks

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