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Monday, October 19, 2026

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From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.

Investor Letters

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LXS.DE: a 2028 sale it can force

Lanxess can force Advent to buy at least half its Envalior stake in April 2028, potentially raising about €745 million to reduce net debt.

LPTH $525M
Trade Ideas Flow 21 clicks

Build-A-Bear: A Narrower Path

Build-A-Bear's push into prestuffed toys and broader retail distribution tests brand stretchability, but recent results warrant caution.

BBW $303M
TSOH Investment Research 17 clicks
TYL · long

Tyler Technologies INC

Tyler Technologies, TYL, is positioned as a resilient govtech software provider if AI disrupts enterprise SaaS.

TYL $14B
Value Investors Club

indie Semiconductor Deep Dive

Indie Semiconductor’s automotive sensing chips are finding robotics demand, while industrial, navigation and quantum businesses sit inside…

INDI $456M
CV's Substack 1 click

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $7B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.

ABNB $106B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. XLIX

Research Roundup Vol. XLIX covers 3.4% inflation, AI compute demand, data center buildouts, and Q2 reports from Rocket Lab, CoreWeave,…

RKLB $30BCRWV $34B
Monte Independent Investment Research

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