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Thursday, October 15, 2026

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Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 53 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Sometimes we come across the same company multiple times due to different events. Noticed insider buying by a director of TechnipFMC $FTI while combing through insider transactions last night. Name rang a bell and so I looked up my brief note when I added it to my internal watchlist last year after a large stock buyback announcement. It went on to gain an additional 120% over the last year and is now up 1,163% over the last five years. And that too for an oil & gas services business.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Continue to believe that expiration this week will be the culmination in the software squeeze. Money will want to come off the table ahead of earnings season for the sector, and I think that will be followed with an acknowledgment from earnings that while their revenues are not at risk today - these companies still do face increased competition, lower barriers, higher costs for cloud/inference, and seat based model problems that will be challenging moving forward. The $WDAY rumor news was not the floor, it was the peak counter narrative to AI disruption.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Impressive just how many healthcare companies with no direct or derivative exposure today or at any point to the $MRNA news can rally 10%+ on the day. Be smart for these companies to pocket these gains with secondaries and solidify fragile balance sheets, but in the ultimate short term pump market their management teams will no doubt not want to interrupt their stocks squeeze potential and will not issue shares, but aggressively unload their options
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

We track insider buying in spinoff or their parents in a custom screen on InsideArbitrage that we like to call the Spinsider. There were three companies (spinoffs or parents of spinoffs) that saw insider buying based on Form 4s filed recently. 1. The home safety and security solutions provider Resideo $RESI completed the spinoff of ADI Global Distribution $ADGI just two weeks ago. This week we saw three different insiders of $RESI buy stock on the open market including the CEO and the General Counsel. $RESI was spun out of Honeywell $HON in 2018, making $ADGI Honeywell's grandchild. 2. Enviri $NVRI was less of a spinoff and more of a breakup. It sold its Clean Earth division to to Veolia Environnement S.A. and paid out $15 per share to shareholders from the proceeds of the sale. It then spun out its Harsco Environmental and Rail divisions and renamed them as Enviri just to confuse us a little. This new Enviri saw insider buying by two insiders including the CEO this week. @valuedontlie especially likes these "stubs" as he likes to call them and has done well with stubs like Starz Entertainment $STRZ Much to my detriment, I kept Lions Gate Studios $LION after the spinoff and sold Starz. 3. The building materials company Amrize $AMRZ, which was spun out of Holcim AG in June 2025 continues to see significant insider buying activity. This month six different insiders including the CFO and the Chief Strategy & M&A Officer purchased shares.

Investor Letters

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Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.2T
Cestrian Capital Research 10 clicks

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B
Best Anchor Stocks 26 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $18B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

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