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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B
Yet Another Value Podcast 84 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$RBRK's backup engine breaks data into fixed-size blocks, for example 4 MB, and stores only the unique blocks across backups. Commvault and Cohesity instead divide data into variable-sized chunks, with the boundaries set by the content itself. Each design has a trade-off. With fixed blocks, a small change inside a block means the whole block gets written again, so Rubrik uses more storage. In return, hashing and comparing blocks is simple, which means faster backups and lower compute overhead. With variable chunks, only the changed portions are written, so storage use is much lower. Working out chunk boundaries and hashes as the data comes in takes more CPU and memory, which can slowdown backups. Cohesity offsets part of this with a scale-out architecture that processes in parallel across nodes. The two designs fit two different jobs. Variable-length deduplication suits long-term archives, where storage cost matters more than speed. Fixed-block deduplication suits recovery after a hack or ransomware attack, where fast restores and predictable performance matter more than saving storage. That matches how each company started. Rubrik came into the market in 2014 focused on security and on getting critical data back quickly after a breach. Cohesity started from a different idea. It built its own file system that spreads data across many servers, each with its own computing power. Backup copies stay readable like normal files, so companies could search and analyze them where they sit, without restoring them first. Security came second. The two are now moving closer together. Cohesity has leaned much more into security and recovery, especially after buying Veritas's backup business in 2024.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Huawei's finer bonding deserves more weight in the AI-chip race. $AVGO's 3.5D approach combines vertically stacked dies with the side-by-side packaging used to connect processors and HBM. It adds another direction in which designers can shorten the wires moving data around a chip. Besi describes Broadcom's initial face-to-face hybrid bonding at 6µm pitch. Huawei reports 1.5µm for its 2026 Kirin implementation. Pitch is the spacing between connections; face-to-face brings the dies' wiring surfaces together. On an identical square grid, that spacing difference allows 16x as many potential bond sites per unit area. Usable connections still depend on routing and the space reserved for power and repair. It is an architectural opportunity, not a bandwidth multiple. The size qualification matters. Kurnal's Kirin 9050 die shots measure roughly 121mm² per die. Extending fine-pitch bonding to much larger AI dies changes the economics: more expensive silicon is at risk when a stack fails, and heat and power delivery have to work across the whole assembly. Broadcom also said face-to-face compute SoC shipments began in February 2026. A later roadmap cannot be read as its first arrival at face-to-face bonding. Huawei looks ahead on this published pitch comparison. Our view is that this gives it a credible route to narrowing parts of the AI-chip gap through packaging. The stronger claim needs production evidence at large accelerator scale. The phone result alone does not establish when that arrives. Builds on Convequity's Huawei After Sanctions, Parts 1–2, 10 & 18 Sep 2026, with updated source checks.
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

$CCXI looks like it's going public Q4 2026. And my hope is that it sort of looks like $OKLO if they generate enough excitement. Watched the investor presentation the other day, just waiting for the public listing anytime soon (I personally added some the other day). Big fan of humanoids, pretty confident physical AI shift is coming next. I'm personally not looking too much about the price action while it's in its filing phase, fun usually begins after ticker change. We'll see what happens

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My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $660B
Best Anchor Stocks 23 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 11 clicks

ASML Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ASML reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion, up 55% year over year, and guided Q4 sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion amid capacity…

ASML $660B
Cestrian Capital Research 7 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 6 clicks
WDC · long

Western Digital CORP

Western Digital, a hard-disk manufacturer, is pitched as a long after significant share-price moves deter investors.

WDC $142B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $126B
P Equity Research 37 clicks

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