Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Back to today

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications outlook through 2030.

GLW $126B
P Equity Research 36 clicks

From X

@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Interesting to see $V up 9 days in a row (nearly funtrun the Chinese announcement). While a positive, it will be years before it plays out (if China follows through down the line, and gets them in the same place AXP and MA already were + the domestic competition). But thats incremental and down the road at best the focus though should be the support the administration (trump recently, and JD wrote the bill when in congress) has thrown behind the CCCA as well as additional bipartisan sponsors that signed on in the past few weeks....that bill will open the rails to an additional network. Which would be a very big additional push towards stable coin based transactions (even greater push from agents commerce). Ultimately the power is shifting towards merchants that no longer want to be subjected to 3%+ interchange fees. If $V losses the CCCA and pandoras box on competition is opened their entire moat is at stake, similar to what is going on with $FICO and Vantage. A once unassailable business model could very quickly come under pressure. Australia lowered interchange fees, went in to effect Oct. 1.....the pressure is building worldwide. But it's the cracking the door open in addition to a new way of shopping that could really leave $V disrupted. Not a mistake the first move earlier this year was lower on the back of AI fears, it has bounced with software now where somehow Phone systems from $RNG and website domains from $GDDY are somehow the new "hot trade", but secular trends seem obvious regardless of pacing that Visa and its pricing power and duopoly are in trouble and FICO to me is a similar case study.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We own both $ONTO and $CAMT because they sell overlapping tools to different HBM makers, and we raised Onto while holding Camtek. In our 4Q26 portfolio rebalance we increased Onto in our portfolio and held Camtek unchanged. Inspection identifies defects. Metrology measures dimensions and material properties to check that manufacturing meets specifications. Both companies sell inspection and metrology tools for HBM and advanced packaging, but their customer exposure differs. Onto is more closely tied to SK hynix's capital-spending plans. Our industry information identifies Camtek as a preferred supplier for Samsung's HBM production lines, and Samsung is investing aggressively to catch up with SK hynix in HBM. Camtek is smaller and more specialized, and we see a technical edge in selected HBM applications. Onto also sells chip-fabrication metrology and packaging lithography, which Camtek does not offer. We raised Onto because increasingly complex chip designs give customers reasons to keep investing beyond the current packaging recovery. We hold Camtek as the more focused advanced-packaging investment.
@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

How much of the $8.4B backlog at BWX Technologies $BWXT turns into revenue by the end of 2027? $BWXT expects to recognize 55% of the $8.4B backlog, or ~$4.6B, by the end of 2027. Another $1.4B of unexercised contract options sit outside the backlog, with $900M expected to be awarded in 2030 and $500M in 2035. Three items drive $BWXT’s quarterly FCF swings: 1) Payables: Higher accounts payable added $71.4M to H1 2026’s $249.0M of operating cash flow, vs. $6.9M a year earlier. The 10-Q credits the cash flow increase mainly to the timing of vendor payments, customer billings, and project cash flows, which can reverse in later quarters. 2) Seasonality: Retainages (payments withheld on the government segment’s fixed-price incentive contracts until set conditions are met) build in Q1 and Q3, with larger payments in Q2 and Q4. 3) Equity income: $BWXT’s share of the profit from the joint ventures that manage 14 government nuclear sites, including Savannah River and Pantex, comes in as equity income, now $80M/year. It counts toward adjusted EBITDA (15.7% of Q2’s $155.5M), but $BWXT only gets the cash when the joint ventures pay dividends. That’s why I’d judge $BWXT’s FCF on the full year, not the quarter.

Investor Letters

All letters

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $12B
CV's Substack 3 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $56B
P Equity Research 4 clicks

Dell's Tailwinds

Dell booked $131.7B of AI server orders in four quarters and held a $95B backlog as enterprise AI demand accelerates.

DELL $367B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

A Month with Muse

Meta’s Muse automated website fixes and design changes for a solo publisher, illustrating how $20-per-month AI agents can reduce…

META $1.9T
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks
AMADF · long

Amadeus It Group SA

Amadeus IT Group turns long after shares fell more than 20% since a November short call.

AMADF $25B
Value Investors Club 1 click

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

UTHR $24B
Trade Ideas Flow 4 clicks

“Is Ralph Lauren Still Relevant?”

Ralph Lauren’s 2017 CEO change put Patrice Louvet in charge of reversing nine quarters of same-store sales declines and restoring the…

RL $22B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 107

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 49 of 225

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

88 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.