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Tuesday, October 13, 2026

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Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications outlook through 2030.

GLW $115B
P Equity Research 38 clicks

From X

@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

$SE is down -45% over the past few months. The prevailing bear case seems to hinge on two points: 1) Rising fear of TikTok Shop competition, and 2) Shopee reinvesting more heavily into logistics, capping margins at ~0.7% of GMV this year vs. prior expectations of ~1.2%. The concern is that this spend is defensive - a necessary response to TikTok rather than a choice. But alt data is telling a different story. TikTok Shop’s Southeast Asia GMV growth has slowed materially over the past few quarters - from 70%+ in 2Q25 to ~30%+ by late 2025. That’s only modestly above Shopee’s own growth rate. More notably, TikTok’s relative share vs. Shopee in Indonesia (~50% of regional GMV) has effectively flat-lined over the past year. If this data is directionally right, Shopee’s ~50 bps of reinvestment looks discretionary and offensive -widening the moat - rather than a defensive reaction to competitive pressure. And critically, that implies the margin compression is temporary, not structural. Oh, and both Shopee & Tiktok are raising take-rates. Not usually the sign of a competitor trying to aggressively take share... Curious, what am I missing? Is the -45% drawdown really just “2026 margins down > negative 2026 earnings revisions > stock down,” even if margins are likely to re-expand next year? And Shopee emerges with a wider moat after? The competitive backdrop looks like it’s improving, not deteriorating...
@MultiplesCap

Multiples Capital on X

It's always amazing for me to see $expe stock getting pummelled evertime there is AI disruption related sell off in the market. Expedia is a platform, for an AI app to replace it, one will need to build something equivalent, get all the hotels to list it there (as inventory) and manage the bookings. Not that it can't be done but it's not same as replacing a SaaS company. Instead I see Expedia using AI to navigate the change. It's more likely that AI replaces how users find hotels on Expedia vs via google search now than the former happening. Also, it's a super recession proof business model. Time will tell for sure :)
@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

Going thru PennyMac earnings... why is this not bullish for Rocket Mortgage $RKT? $PFSI is down on accelerated prepayments, and lacking the capacity to recapture them. Meanwhile $RKT's been embracing AI / tech to grow capacity per loan officer, and not needing additional headcount in the next cycle. $RKT also has 80% recapture rate, so their own MSR business should be protected. What are the odds these refinancing's flowed to $RKT, and they meaningfully grew market share this quarter? Am I missing something?

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Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $10B
CV's Substack 5 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $56B
P Equity Research 5 clicks

Dell's Tailwinds

Dell booked $131.7B of AI server orders in four quarters and held a $95B backlog as enterprise AI demand accelerates.

DELL $301B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

UTHR $24B
Trade Ideas Flow 4 clicks

“Is Ralph Lauren Still Relevant?”

Ralph Lauren’s 2017 CEO change put Patrice Louvet in charge of reversing nine quarters of same-store sales declines and restoring the…

RL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click
AMADF · long

Amadeus It Group SA

Amadeus IT Group turns long after shares fell more than 20% since a November short call.

AMADF $25B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

A temporary glitch?

Coupang’s November 2025 cybersecurity breach tests whether a selloff is temporary despite its 28% Korean e-commerce share, 14 million-plus…

CPNG $27B
Asian Century Stocks 9 clicks

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