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Monday, October 5, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…
@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

Good article about how $CRDO is bringing together multiple layers of connectivity: “The operational angle is equally important. At 1.6T, the issue is not simply moving twice the data of an 800G port. Large AI fabrics can contain enormous numbers of optical links, making intermittent faults and link flaps increasingly consequential to cluster availability and troubleshooting. Credo is therefore positioning telemetry and diagnostics as part of the optical link architecture itself rather than treating observability as a separate management layer.” Having a full suite of connectivity options will give them a big advantage in 1.6T. https://t.co/K7TtgjECoa

Investor Letters

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British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $121B
Invariant 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B
Irrational Analysis 3 clicks
STRL · short

Sterling Infrastructure INC

Sterling Infrastructure short pairs STRL against EME and FIX, arguing data-center sitework contractors lack the margin upside available to…

STRL $16B
Value Investors Club

PayPal, Declined

Stripe and Advent’s reported $53 billion bid for PayPal follows a decade in which Stripe’s payment volume outgrew PayPal’s Braintree.

PYPL $47B
Net Interest

Netflix: What's Coming Next

Netflix’s $16.2 billion operating income follows its DVD-to-streaming and global pivots, but short-form video, YouTube and FAST services…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research

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