Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $58B

Bison Insights Oct 5 3 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $43B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 10 clicks

From X

@convequity Sep 2

Convequity on X

Snyk is a clean postmortem for what happens when a security tool lives inside the coding agent’s loop. The product was mostly scan-and-warn. Find the issue, comment on the PR, suggest a fix. Blocking the merge usually sat in GitHub, not in Snyk. Bigger platforms smothered it. $PANW, $CRWD, and Wiz pulled AppSec into the bundle the CISO was already buying. GitHub was the main developer surface and put scanning where the code already lived. Then coding agents arrived and delivered the final blow. A lot of that scanning became something the agent could just do. Growth held up for a short while after the COVID/cloud tailwind. Then it decelerated hard. This is the same lens we use in Convequity’s SaaS Agentic Survival Evaluation Framework. The PANW, CRWD, and FTNT reviews go up on Convequity in a few days.

@leevalueroach Sep 2

Lee Roach on X

@sophieanalytics Sweet thanks. Haven't dug much in $WY yet. Just been doing $RYN. So WY doesn't do much HBU?

@leevalueroach Sep 2

Lee Roach on X

Timber companies are a hard asset and low risk way to play the datacenter boom. $RYN $WY https://t.co/YElT0VT8R9

@negligible_cap Sep 1

Negligible Capital on X

*DELL SEES FY ADJ EPS $25.25 TO $25.75, SAW $17.65 TO $18.15 The $DELL earnings / guide is absolutely wild FY27 EPS guided at $25.5 at the midpoint when the buyside expectations were at around $22 (street was only at $18.4). And to think Dell was at one point a consensus short on memory pricing exposure. Servers are booming. Holy DELL

@BrokenMoats Sep 1

Broken Moats on X

$QXO finally in my valuation zone, acquired shares this afternoon. Rates present a challenge, soft commodities surging and geopolitical could further stress inflation/yields but you usually do not get deal when everything is firing on all cylinders

@TidefallCapital Sep 1

Trevor Scott on X

$FFH.TO finally overtaking $MKL on P/B (M2M value not included) "Fairfax currently has roughly $5 billion of excess fair value over carrying value in its associate and market-traded consolidated holdings—about $250 per share pre-tax." - @VikingVan100 https://t.co/fjSNi41Xaj

@KEDM_COM Sep 1

KEDM.com on X

JDP Capital @Jeremy_Deal is quite bullish on Cerebras Systems $CBRS, which is currently trading 50% below its post IPO peak. According to the Fund, given its revenue under contract, the stock could be more than $1,000 per share within the next few years vs. today's $186. Another take from the Q2 letter: “Drug discovery may be one of the largest beneficiaries of AI of any industry on earth as the companies with the most proprietary data and the deepest clinical histories will widen their advantages”. JDP’s new position in this field was Eli Lilly $LLY.

@stockgutter Sep 1

SG on X

@Zerosumgame33 Manav calling $CLMT $DAR $ADM $BG "peers" is crazy to me. Other than all touching ag, they are very different businesses with very different drivers.

Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $25BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

CIEN $57B

Marc Gerstein Oct 5 2 clicks

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $74B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 3 clicks

NVIDIA SERIES | PART 1 : Jensen's Math and the Blackwell Gap: Dies, Chips, GPUs, and Revenue

Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU rollout created an AI compute oversupply after customers preordered millions of chips amid expected shortages.

NVDA $5.5T

Kakashii's Materials Oct 5 1 click

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $121B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 4 3 clicks

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

The Art of Doing Financial Engineering

AI infrastructure’s $6.3 trillion financing gap is driving structured debt and asset-backed solutions, starting with Meta’s planned 5GW…

META $1.9TMS $294B

Net Interest Oct 3 5 clicks

Walmart: Fiscal 2028 Consensus Leaves No Room For Diesel Or Rollbacks

Walmart's FY28 consensus requires 15–18% operating-income growth above plan despite diesel costs, price investments and a non-recurring…

WMT $877B

Sameer Shahzad Oct 3 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $17B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/02/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Meta’s AI agent ambitions, Netflix’s TV gaming strategy and Arc’teryx’s rise from $500 million to more than $2…

META $1.9TNFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 2 3 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

[scuttleslops] Cloudflare wants bots to pay; OpenAI’s ad ambitions; Memory chip competition; Muse is a proactive assistant; the Wintel of cars and robots; Atlassian as a coordinating layer

Cloudflare is building HTTP 402 payments for AI agents, using its web network to let publishers charge bots for content access.

NET $125B

scuttleblurb Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part One: The Story

Nike grew from a $1,000 shoe-distribution venture in 1964 into the largest sports brand, using athlete endorsements, product innovation and…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

ServiceNow: Still A 'Strong Buy' As AI Revenues Gain Traction

ServiceNow expects AI annual contract value to reach $1.5 billion by year-end, with assist-pack consumption pricing supporting growth…

NOW $145B

Jetstream Research Oct 2 1 click

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings

Rocket Lab reported Q2 revenue up 62% to $234.1 million and backlog up 137% to $2.36 billion, while operating losses and cash burn…

RKLB $40B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 2

American Healthcare REIT: A Dip Buy Driven By Senior-Care And Outpatient Tailwind

American Healthcare REIT’s senior-housing and outpatient portfolio is driving FFO growth and dividend safety, while a rich valuation limits…

AHR $12B

Albert Anthony Oct 2 1 click

Sleep Well Portfolio (Sept 2026) - New Pick coming up - SWI#25.

CrowdStrike faces a trim at a $270 billion valuation and 140x free cash flow, despite AI-driven cybersecurity demand and a $20 billion ARR…

CRWD $267B

Sleep Well Investments Oct 2 2 clicks

Twilio (NYSE: TWLO) Stock Rating: Hold After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings - Distribute Below $260

Twilio posted Q2 revenue of $1.50 billion, up 22%, and guided 16% Q3 growth; the note rates TWLO Hold at $305, with a $260 risk line.

TWLO $42B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 1 1 click

Convequity on X

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Lee Roach on X

Negligible Capital on X

Broken Moats on X

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SG on X

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