Sunday, September 13, 2026

Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B

Sylence Capital Sep 13 2 clicks

Sep 13 BKNG $126B

Booking Holdings Deep Dive: An Attractive Setup

Capitalist Letters 4 clicks

Sep 13 SVM $2.7B

Oak Bloke Bonkers Conkers 13th September 2026

The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

From X

@negligible_cap Sep 13

Negligible Capital on X

The fact that I had to check the $HOOD app to make sure this was fake is a pretty good indicator of where we stand https://t.co/2f572Mthh7

@DeepSailCapital Sep 13

Deep Sail Capital on X

@SixSigmaCapital It’s kind of the standard AI stack, Chips than Memory than Optics. But a layer deeper is the question if inference is the biggest theme, than does everyone making their own custom silicon become more mainstream? In that case $MRVL probably is highest beta play there.

@TheBenSchmark Sep 12

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Sometimes a simple chart and pun captures the entire thesis. Just go with the $FLO and make bread. https://t.co/VyIYTaVRF1 https://t.co/lGn8FncexY

@Fierce__beast Sep 12

Fierce_beast on X

For $CASY, let's say it grows earnings roughly 6% on average for the next 20 years, then 3% terminally. Maybe its 9% for the next 5 years, but gradually moves toward something like maturity of 3%, average let's say is 6%. What multiple would you currently pay on that earnings stream? Personally, i would pay no more than 25x for this. Add other considerations to the business, maybe you think it will grow faster or longer, adjust your multiple as you prefer.

@partners_road Sep 12

RiverRoadPartners on X

Stan gave the example of 2001. $CSCO had aggressively grown its backlog every yr through the Internet 1.0 buildout & the Street expected the same in 2001, but instead $CSCO’s backlog plunged. The build was over, & with that equipment demand evaporated. That will happen again. https://t.co/7yB6vDgcl8

@TidefallCapital Sep 12

Trevor Scott on X

my mistake $ADBE has a Nov year end. so it's 12x nov 2027, 14x nov 2026.

@finphysnerd Sep 12 1 click

Myles on X

I feel $GEO is a pretty decent short here. It's not cheap, and I might be politically biased, but I think it's hard to see Republicans getting many wins in the midterms, which the market will likely extrapolate to 2028.

@TidefallCapital Sep 11

Trevor Scott on X

I'll never understand going long $ADBE at 14x '27 when you can buy $CSU.TO at 15x '27. Maybe because it's Canadian listed.

Nintendo: The Software Payoff Is Still Ahead

Nintendo expects software, digital sales and character licensing to drive growth, with FY2027 revenue forecast at ¥2.05 trillion and…

NTDOY $62B

LL Insights Sep 13

AI Terminator Fears Grow & Rates Breach 4.9% | The Weekly Wrap

Ten-year Treasury yields breach 4.9% as Steve Eisman discusses AI fears, OpenAI's price cut, Oracle's 30% revenue growth and Tesla's…

ORCL $446B

Steve Eisman Sep 11 2 clicks

USA Compression: Unlocking Efficiency As It Heads To The Texas Stock Exchange

USA Compression targets nearly 30% full-year EBITDA growth as JW Power synergies, telemetry and maintenance reduce costs; its units yield…

USAC $3.8B

Ron Ferrie Sep 11 3 clicks

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B

Hated Moats Sep 11 2 clicks

Why “Affordable Luxury” Doesn't Compound

Lululemon’s growth stalled as affordable-luxury apparel brands face fading post-Covid demand, cheap social-media influence and China…

LULU $11BNKE $54B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 11 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $74B

Net Interest Sep 11 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)

TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…

MKL $22BPTON $2.1B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 11 2 clicks

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) Stock Rating: Upgrade To Accumulate After Q3 FY10/26 Earnings - Accumulation Zone And Stop Inside

Applied Materials reported Q3 revenue of $9.1 billion, up 25%, and $2.3 billion in free cash flow as AMAT fell roughly 40% from its June…

AMAT $375B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 11

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage

Joby Aviation is initiated at Accumulate after booking $116m of trailing revenue, forming a Toyota manufacturing venture and agreeing to…

JOBY $6.2B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 11

NewtekOne: Pivot Towards Holding Guaranteed Loans A Good Strategy

NewtekOne’s bank conversion and retention of SBA-guaranteed loans target recurring income, while a 6% yield and book-value valuation…

NEWT $343M

Stephen Nemo Sep 11

PLAB · long

Photronics INC

PLAB $1.6B

Value Investors Club May 30

Novo Nordisk Q1 2026 Review: The Reset Year Looks Less Ugly Than Feared

Novo Nordisk’s adjusted Q1 sales fell 4% despite 22% obesity-care growth, as lower US prices outweighed volume gains.

NVO $175B

Hated Moats May 6

Bumble Q1: A Hated Stock, a Product Rebuild, and a 30% Owner Earnings Yield

Bumble’s Q1 revenue fell 14% to $212.4 million as paying users dropped 21%, while marketing cuts lifted EBITDA margin to 39% ahead of a Q4…

BMBL $376M

Modern Value Investing May 6

Coupang 1Q26 Business Recap: Data Leak Shows Member Strength

Coupang’s data scandal cut active customers to 23.9 million, but 80% of departed WOW members had returned by April as vouchers and…

CPNG $26B

Speedwell Research May 6

April Earnings Update

Crocs raised 2026 EPS guidance to $13.20-$13.75 and bought back $73.6 million of stock, while Huntsman, Pitney Bowes and Alpha…

CROX $5.9BHUN $1.6B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter May 5

Adobe Expert Insight Interview (No Paywall)

Adobe trades at 11x earnings despite $24.5 billion of revenue, 37% operating margins and 12% profit growth; a former data-science head…

ADBE $99B

Speedwell Memos May 4

PayPal tries again (and again)

Stripe’s startup-focused product sprawl contrasts with Adyen’s enterprise restraint; despite 20% more payment volume and faster growth,…

PYPL $45B

scuttleblurb May 4

Weekend Digest #343: Berkshire, Atlassian, Roblox

Berkshire Hathaway’s dot-com-era performance frames AI-boom comparisons, Atlassian beats earnings, and Roblox shares fall.

TEAM $49BRBLX $34B

Ian’s Insider Corner May 3

Floor & Decor: 1Q26 Business Update

Floor & Decor cut 2026 guidance after 1Q same-store sales fell 3.7%, while shrinking new-store formats, cutting comparable-store SG&A and…

FND $5B

Speedwell Research May 1

Quick Value #313 - Magnum Ice Cream (MICC)

Magnum Ice Cream (MICC), spun off from Unilever, trades at 13x NTM earnings and 8x EBITDA as its 3 million-freezer fleet supports a 2-3…

MICC $12B

Value Don't Lie May 1

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Negligible Capital on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Fierce_beast on X

RiverRoadPartners on X

Trevor Scott on X

Myles on X

Trevor Scott on X

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