Thursday, September 10, 2026

One of the Best Business Models in the World Just Went on Sale

AppLovin trades at 18 times EBITDA after a 57% drop, despite 84% EBITDA margins, rapid growth and a machine-learning advertising platform.

APP $104B

The Value Road Sep 10 5 clicks

Sep 10 TDG $61B

TransDigm is still in it for the money

scuttleblurb 1 click

Sep 9 META $1.7T

First Impression of Muse

MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

From X

@orrdavid Sep 10 1 click

David Orr on X

Does anyone know a way for an $IBKR account to sell the Oracle default swaps, and have those still been going up a ton? IE: I want to get paid if Oracle does not in fact go bust.

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

@tomicki I can't even see what possibly resolves this for many, many years. Could see the big three $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN hit insane market caps.

@RagingVentures Sep 10 2 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Very well stated, short $PANW https://t.co/QcEgBbM9Mg

@RagingVentures Sep 10

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Brin owns at least two jets as well as a 466 foot yacht that is regularly seen cruising around the Mediterranean. Does he really have the intensity and focus to lead $GOOG’s efforts in AI? Start-ups are a young man’s game. (I also think Larry Page was more critical than Brin in Google’s early product and tech architecture successes)

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

In the 2000 example, $QQQ tried to take one final leg up... but it took 3 months. So even if we get a bit higher move up in $SOXX short term, I won't read into it too much. It'll really be new highs that makes me change my mind here. https://t.co/V5l640oDKE

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

$SOXX lost 30% in a month. So similar to $QQQ in 2000.

@leevalueroach Sep 10

Lee Roach on X

I wrote up $APP. Gave it my thoughts. I think it is one of the best business models in the world. And if they can successfully get into the e-commerce space then there is a ton of white space for growth. Found a decent way to track their move to e-commerce too which I don't think many are doing. I am not buying here as this is like a 4% free cash flow yield. But this stock is volatile and I plan to take advantage of any sort of downturn and freak out price drop, which tends to happen in this industry. Putting it on my watch list. Have a read if you like ad-tech space. I find it fascinating.

@negligible_cap Sep 10

Negligible Capital on X

*MICROSOFT PLANS TO TRIPLE DATA CENTER CAPACITY TO 38 GIGAWATTS $MSFT planning on having more than 38 GW of capacity up in 2032, compared to 12 GW currently. Jeez man we might be early

ServiceNow: A Gem Beating The SaaSpocalypse Narrative

ServiceNow expects AI to rise from 9.5% to 30% of revenue by 2030, supporting $30–32 billion in subscription revenue and margins above 80%.

NOW $145B

Louis Gerard Sep 9 2 clicks

Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows.

DECK $11B

Value Don't Lie Sep 9 5 clicks

[scuttleslops] UNP-NSC merger, HEI, NVDA, AVGO, DG, DLTR

Union Pacific’s $85 billion Norfolk Southern merger pitch centers on a coast-to-coast rail network that cuts interchange delays and wins…

UNP $161BNSC $71B

scuttleblurb Sep 9 3 clicks

Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY1/27 Earnings

Dell’s Q2 revenue rose 57.7% to $47.0 billion and RPO tripled to $132 billion, but its stock trades at 32 times unlevered pretax free cash…

DELL $366B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 9 1 click

Dyne Therapeutics Remains A Buy Even As Novartis Trial Failure Hits DM1 Class

Dyne Therapeutics fell 16% after Novartis’ HARBOR failure raised doubts that RNA-targeting biomarker gains translate into functional…

DYN $3.2BNVS $268B

Petri Dish Reports Sep 9 1 click

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B

Hated Moats Sep 8 6 clicks

P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74

Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…

TRV $79BAIG $39B

Steve Eisman Sep 7 6 clicks

UBER 2026-09-07

A quick update on Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.

UBER $145B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 7 5 clicks

lululemon: An 18% Crash Is Not A Buy Signal

Lululemon’s Americas revenue fell 8% and comps dropped 12%, while a $134.5 million tariff refund masked weakening underlying margins after…

LULU $11B

On the Pulse Sep 7 1 click

Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

CELH $7.1BPEP $182B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 7 7 clicks

PYPL · long

Paypal Holdings INC

PayPal’s valuation implies free cash flow will shrink 9.3% annually over the next decade, framing a long thesis against its recent revenue…

PYPL $45B

Value Investors Club May 25

Why Nike ($NKE) Won't Make It Into the Bearhold Universe

Nike is excluded from Bearhold’s universe because cultural relevance and consumer taste drive demand, leaving its revenue model less…

NKE $54B

Bearhold Research Apr 5 1 click

Under the Hood, Copart ($CPRT)

Copart’s salvage-auction network pairs scarce storage land with global online bidding, supporting insurer returns and a durable moat…

CPRT $27B

Bearhold Research Apr 3 1 click

Single Stock Spotlight #5: Core Natural Resources (CNR)

Core Natural Resources (CNR) trades at 6 times normalized free cash flow, with export thermal coal exposure positioned for LNG disruption…

CNR $4.5BAMR $2.2B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Mar 24

Doubling Down on Iran and OXY

Occidental Petroleum is positioned for oil above $80, with a prolonged Iran conflict and Gulf supply shut-ins pushing prices into triple…

OXY $59B

Open Insights Mar 20

Shift4 Payments: A Fintech Compounder Trading Like a Melting Ice Cube

Shift4 Payments earns 50 to 60 basis points on SkyTab volume while acquiring merchant networks, driving 39% annual GRLNF growth since 2021…

FOUR $3.3B

Modern Value Investing Mar 15

Single Stock Spotlight #4: Global Payments (GPN)

Global Payments trades below 6 times adjusted earnings and about 7 times free cash flow amid Worldpay, competition and debt concerns.

GPN $23B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Mar 13

We Dramatically Improved our Machine Learning Model to Price Kalshi Earnings Contracts. It Went 11/13.

A two-layer machine-learning model correctly called 11 of 13 CrowdStrike earnings-word contracts on Kalshi, using historical transcripts…

CRWD $256B

First Strike Research Mar 7

Single Stock Spotlight #3: Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)

Alpha Metallurgical Resources has retired more than 30% of its shares since 2022; higher structural metallurgical-coal costs could support…

AMR $2.2B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Mar 3

Kazakhstan, Japan, and Trimming a Winner

Kaspi.kz’s 850 KZT ADS dividend establishes a roughly 9% yield after Hepsiburada spending; Japanese buyback disclosures test whether 0.61x…

KSPI $18B

Cluseau Research Mar 2 2 clicks

Thursday, September 10, 2026

David Orr on X

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Raging Capital Ventures on X

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