Thursday, September 10, 2026

One of the Best Business Models in the World Just Went on Sale

AppLovin trades at 18 times EBITDA after a 57% drop, despite 84% EBITDA margins, rapid growth and a machine-learning advertising platform.

APP $104B

The Value Road Sep 10 5 clicks

Sep 10 TDG $61B

TransDigm is still in it for the money

scuttleblurb 1 click

Sep 9 META $1.7T

First Impression of Muse

MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

From X

@orrdavid Sep 10 1 click

David Orr on X

Does anyone know a way for an $IBKR account to sell the Oracle default swaps, and have those still been going up a ton? IE: I want to get paid if Oracle does not in fact go bust.

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

@tomicki I can't even see what possibly resolves this for many, many years. Could see the big three $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN hit insane market caps.

@RagingVentures Sep 10 2 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Very well stated, short $PANW https://t.co/QcEgBbM9Mg

@RagingVentures Sep 10

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Brin owns at least two jets as well as a 466 foot yacht that is regularly seen cruising around the Mediterranean. Does he really have the intensity and focus to lead $GOOG’s efforts in AI? Start-ups are a young man’s game. (I also think Larry Page was more critical than Brin in Google’s early product and tech architecture successes)

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

In the 2000 example, $QQQ tried to take one final leg up... but it took 3 months. So even if we get a bit higher move up in $SOXX short term, I won't read into it too much. It'll really be new highs that makes me change my mind here. https://t.co/V5l640oDKE

@orrdavid Sep 10

David Orr on X

$SOXX lost 30% in a month. So similar to $QQQ in 2000.

@leevalueroach Sep 10

Lee Roach on X

I wrote up $APP. Gave it my thoughts. I think it is one of the best business models in the world. And if they can successfully get into the e-commerce space then there is a ton of white space for growth. Found a decent way to track their move to e-commerce too which I don't think many are doing. I am not buying here as this is like a 4% free cash flow yield. But this stock is volatile and I plan to take advantage of any sort of downturn and freak out price drop, which tends to happen in this industry. Putting it on my watch list. Have a read if you like ad-tech space. I find it fascinating.

@negligible_cap Sep 10

Negligible Capital on X

*MICROSOFT PLANS TO TRIPLE DATA CENTER CAPACITY TO 38 GIGAWATTS $MSFT planning on having more than 38 GW of capacity up in 2032, compared to 12 GW currently. Jeez man we might be early

Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows.

DECK $11B

Value Don't Lie Sep 9 5 clicks

[scuttleslops] UNP-NSC merger, HEI, NVDA, AVGO, DG, DLTR

Union Pacific’s $85 billion Norfolk Southern merger pitch centers on a coast-to-coast rail network that cuts interchange delays and wins…

UNP $161BNSC $71B

scuttleblurb Sep 9 3 clicks

Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) Stock Rating: Do Nothing After Q2 FY1/27 Earnings

Dell’s Q2 revenue rose 57.7% to $47.0 billion and RPO tripled to $132 billion, but its stock trades at 32 times unlevered pretax free cash…

DELL $366B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 9 1 click

Dyne Therapeutics Remains A Buy Even As Novartis Trial Failure Hits DM1 Class

Dyne Therapeutics fell 16% after Novartis’ HARBOR failure raised doubts that RNA-targeting biomarker gains translate into functional…

NVS $268B

Petri Dish Reports Sep 9 1 click

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B

Hated Moats Sep 8 6 clicks

Qualcomm: Data Center Revenue To Reach $15 Billion In 3 Years

Qualcomm targets $15 billion of data-center revenue by FY2029 through AI accelerators, custom ASICs, Arm server CPUs and hyperscaler wins.

QCOM $203B

Khaveen Investments Sep 8

P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74

Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…

TRV $79BAIG $39B

Steve Eisman Sep 7 6 clicks

UBER 2026-09-07

A quick update on Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.

UBER $145B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 7 5 clicks

Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

PEP $182B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 7 7 clicks

Check Point Software: AI Could Change The Growth Equation

Check Point Software’s AI-centric cybersecurity platform could lift revenue growth to 10%, supporting a $166 intrinsic value estimate…

CHKP $14B

Hong Chew Eu Sep 7

SYK · long

Stryker CORP

Stryker (SYK) trades near a 52-week low after a late-Q1 cyberattack disrupted revenue and earnings, framing a long-term compounder…

SYK $107B

Value Investors Club May 4 4 clicks

Apple Earnings Mentions Contracts: Our Analysis

Apple’s Kalshi earnings-call contracts price mentions of “foldable” and “glasses,” while its 24-year transcript record indicates management…

AAPL $5T

First Strike Research Apr 28

Booking Holdings: A 15% EPS Compounder at 17x Earnings

Booking Holdings generated $9.1 billion in 2025 free cash flow and targets 15% annual EPS growth, trading at 16.8x forward 2026 earnings.

BKNG $126B

Modern Value Investing Apr 26

Under The Hood, HCA Healthcare - $HCA

HCA Healthcare generated $75.6 billion of 2025 revenue and an 18.9% ROIC, pairing hospital-market scale with expanding margins and lower…

HCA $95B

Bearhold Research Apr 25 3 clicks

Apple Turnover

Apple Pay reaches 785 million users and has become Apple’s springboard into cards, transfers and savings, giving it a fintech advantage…

AAPL $5T

Net Interest Apr 24

An Open Letter to the TPL Board

Texas Pacific Land shareholders urge two board additions, data-center expertise, and capital spending beyond mineral royalties toward…

TPL $24B

310 Value’s Newsletter Apr 22 3 clicks

Our Q1 2026 Letter & Look Ahead: Oil, Iran, OXY & PTON

Open Square Capital’s Q1 2026 letter discusses the oil market, Iran, Occidental Petroleum and Peloton.

OXY $59B

Open Insights Apr 17

Defying the Surveys

PNC CEO Bill Demchak says consumer spending, savings, activity and loan growth contradict record-low University of Michigan consumer…

PNC $93B

Net Interest Apr 17

Mention Market Analysis: Truist Financial

Truist Financial’s April 17 call is forecast to feature “tailwind” in NIM and asset-repricing discussions, with the 51-cent Kalshi contract…

TFC $59B

First Strike Research Apr 14

Capitulation in packaged food consumer staples?

Conagra’s CEO change and 9% yield intensified a packaged-food selloff, while General Mills trades near historical valuation lows despite…

GIS $19B

Nugget Capital Partner's Substack Apr 13

Thursday, September 10, 2026

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