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Thursday, September 3, 2026

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@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

Big gap higher pre-mkt for $W. Furniture names in general have been ripping the past 3-months. QUIETLY. 4+ years of brutal housing market headwinds and these businesses have been grinding away, generating cash, buying back stock, preserving margins. Easy comps + the potential of an upturn in housing velocity make it a good recipe for longs with valuations that remain notably cheap relative to mid-cycle EBITDA. Look at some of these 3-month returns: $BOBS: 64.8% $W: 35.8% $BSET: 34.1% $WSM: 33.2% $HOFT: 21.4% $LZB: 18.5% $ETD 12.2% There's plenty of juice in the group with a sustained upturn in home furnishings spend after the post-COVID19 crash. $WSM is on our Buyback Outliers list. I own $BSET, $ETD, $BBBY
@evantindell

Evan Tindell on X

Finally got a chance to go through the $UMG earnings... Obviously, a disappointment on revenue growth and margins, which saw the stock drop like 20%. Subscription revenue was 6.7% organically, and the street was looking for >9%. So, a big miss. Still, I think things should improve. Apple, Spotify, Amazon, and YouTube music have all raised prices this year, and a portion of that will go to UMG. CFO Matt Ellis said on the call that these prices and "better market share to start the third quarter" make them "cautiously optimistic" (really sticking his neck out there!!) that growth will improve in H2 of 2026. Interestingly, Warner Music $WMG managed to grow revenue 12% in CC and adjusted OIBDA by 24%, so clearly this is a UMG-only problem, at least for this quarter. $UMG trades at 14x earnings on a NTM basis now... this seems pretty reasonable if not downright cheap for a company that has grown EBIT from EUR 1b in 2019 to around 2b today (11% organic EBITDA CAGR). We own this through Bollore, which currently has an NAV of just above 11 EUR by my calculation vs a last price of under 4 EUR. Notably, JPM thinks new AI tiers in Spotify and Apple Music will drive ARPU growth of 300 bps per year. Their price target was 48 EUR prior to the recent earnings release...

Investor Letters

All letters
BE 2026-08-29

Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break

Bloom Energy’s 80x forward earnings valuation relies on concentrated megaprojects, sustained AI data-center power demand and continued…

BE $81B
Valuation Rewind 2 clicks
ENS · short

Enersys

EnerSys faces a short thesis as data-center and warehouse vehicle customers shift from lead-acid batteries to lithium-ion.

ENS $6.5B
Value Investors Club

QXO Inc.

QXO is building a North American construction-products distributor through Beacon, Kodiak and TopBuild, targeting $18.1 billion of combined…

QXO $13B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…

UWMC $2B
Yet Another Value Podcast 13 clicks

UK Primer: The Equity Revival

UK equities trade at decades-wide discounts to developed-market peers as improving sentiment, capital reform and foreign M&A support a…

ARM $356B
Aurelion Research 2 clicks

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