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Wednesday, September 2, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$QXO gang anyone have a current cap table, wanted to run some numbers but its hard to keep up with all the issuance/debt offerings.... Pro forma suggests there is around 1.1B shares outstanding? (will that include all the financing to get Topbuild closed (I believe so)? + around $8B in net debt (pro forma) So at $14 a share - that would be roughly $23B EV value? Anyone confirm this or tell me which pieces are wrong (for Kodiak, beacon and Topbuild) Roughly $2B EBITDA off their press release (probably up for debate, rates/economy, then need to look how much synergies might be backed into that) So 4x leveraged (means likely more shares need to get issued to de-risk especially with interest rate risks and transmission to demand) so 11.5x with mote dilution (likely).....getting close but not there yet - still think you need to wait for 10x or < Last and most important question does the math around Beacon change - 15x is meaty for a distributor multiple so unlikely they walk. But with the 45/55 split (is there floor conditions or will TopBuild eat that difference if/when they vote later this month (if not anyone know what the break fee is). Thanks in advance
@ActAccordingly 2 clicks

PAA Research on X

I call this the "LLOK" trade (Lower Leg of the K). This is a really interesting non-consensus thematic opportunity, dare I call it contrarian (if you're old enough to remember when that was a preferred approach to alpha generation). Investors have been quick to dismiss anything resembling a LLOK trade, but look what's happened in the past few weeks: $DLTR, $CASY, $CBRL, $PENN, $PRKS all massively outperforming in the past month. I'll include my beloved $CAKE in this group. Yes, some of that is factor rotation, but employment tailwinds for this consumer set might be better as a result of data center CAPEX/reindustrialization, and the "sell these names on gas prices" trade couldn't be hackneyed analysis. Finally, follow @TiberiusCapital, he's one of the best investors I know.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

This infographic looks hugely bearish to me and clearly I'm not the only one seeing it that way. That bar chart in the middle looks like a disaster as does allocating 30% of this deal to retail. Being multiple times oversubscribed is not what people want to hear at this point. How many guys put in orders expecting to get one-tenth or 1-20th of their ask? If those funds get filled at higher levels, you can expect $MS to really extend its balance sheet tomorrow to prevent this from breaking issue. Maybe the book really fills in over the next 30 hours, but usually if a deal's hot you would see stronger orders at this point. The $MS equity capital markets team has a long few days ahead. $SPCX
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

If/when @altcap and $NVDA sell their shares in the next year or two, how is this different then what Andrew left did twitting a thesis and going to do the opposite shortly after?? That was deemed illegal and I am sure there they'll blame some event in the near future that disrupted their thesis, etc but this feels no different then self promotion in the opposite direction Bigger issue is existing shareholders from dramatically lower prices going on a retail oriented TV program to hype their holdings to buy in at inflated prices is blatantly perfidious and morally bankrupt. Bookmark this for when they sellout. Amazon ipo at a $438m valuation and Google at a $27B valuation by law of large numbers his statement is already categorically false unless all of GDP will be produced by these 3 companies

Investor Letters

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Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive

Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…

MSFT $3.8T
Bearhold Research 18 clicks
BE 2026-08-29

Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break

Bloom Energy’s 80x forward earnings valuation relies on concentrated megaprojects, sustained AI data-center power demand and continued…

BE $64B
Valuation Rewind 6 clicks

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