Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Today
From X
Broken Moats on X
Butterfly Network faces questions over Midjourney’s 50,000-unit ultrasound plan, whose pool-based body-composition spas cannot replace CT or MRI diagnostics and may carry heavy maintenance and capital costs.
Broken Moats on X
CarMax cut vehicle prices to lift sales, but lower gross profit, weak auto loans and Carvana competition leave significant challenges after earnings.
Broken Moats on X
Boston Scientific's revenue doubled and EBIT rose from $1.4 billion to $4.1 billion over five years, while Farapulse and Watchman growth slows and valuation embeds substantial expectations.
Broken Moats on X
Software sold off as private-credit names MFC, ARES and FG rose alongside banks, with JPM up 14% in June. The valuation gap points to lower private-credit prices.
Broken Moats on X
ELF, CAVA, Shake Shack and Birkenstock surged 30% to 60% within weeks despite weak sales or lower outlooks, raising questions about rate, oil and short-squeeze driven retail rallies.
Broken Moats on X
SLP’s buyout follows years of value destruction from expensive acquisitions, service-heavy revenue and collapsing free cash flow. Its FDA-used simulation software remains the core asset for private equity.
Broken Moats on X
Dutch Bros has risen nearly 40% despite premium valuation as 7 Brew, Starbucks, McDonald’s, Dunkin and Swig intensify pricing pressure in refreshers and energy drinks.
Broken Moats on X
$BIRK misses earnings, stock drops and now with one $250m repurchase the stock has squeezed up 70% in less than a month....
Investor Letters
All letters- Sequoia Fund year ended December 31, 2025 +22.1%
- Sequoia Fund first quarter of 2026 -11.0%
- Palm Harbour Capital 2022 Q4
- Palm Harbour Capital first quarter of 2023
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 +13.7%
- Maran Capital Management 2Q 2026 +5.4%
- Patient Capital Management 2Q25 +15.3%
- Patient Capital Management 3Q25 +14.1%
KSTR 2026-08-27 KSTR: Exposure To China's Chips And Potential Diversifier For SOXX
Chetan Woodun ACIW 2026-08-27 ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
SiliconBytes Insights 
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
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