Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Today
From X
Broken Moats on X
Travel, housing, biotech and waste stocks rallied while Amazon lagged after weak Prime sales, leaving Target, KB Home and Expedia moves hard to explain.
Broken Moats on X
MetLife, Lincoln and regional banks including Western Alliance face interconnected private-credit exposure, with scrutiny of loan credit ratings.
Broken Moats on X
Wabash's $WNC rally reflects hopes for a replacement trailer market in 2027 and tariffs on Chinese suppliers, despite cyclical balance-sheet risk.
Broken Moats on X
Little perplexed you get more negative redemption stories around private credit, and the market only sells off the the the pure play PE companies. First derivatives are up? $MFC $FG $MET $WAL all have sizable exposure to the same asset class.....
Broken Moats on X
Almost a 40% spread opened up since the beginning of June (3 weeks ago!) between $MSFT and $SOXX Nearly 60% on $CRM and $SOXX... Buckle up
Broken Moats on X
FIS is framed as a deep-value payments opportunity amid an anticipated rotation out of semiconductor and mega-cap AI momentum names.
Broken Moats on X
Netflix's 200-day support sits near $70, with hosting costs and World Cup viewership pressure driving near-term negative momentum.
Broken Moats on X
Micron and Sandisk rely on large-cap tech’s rising equity, creating a circular spending trade vulnerable to capex cuts.
Investor Letters
All letters- Sequoia Fund year ended December 31, 2025 +22.1%
- Sequoia Fund first quarter of 2026 -11.0%
- Palm Harbour Capital 2022 Q4
- Palm Harbour Capital first quarter of 2023
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 +13.7%
- Maran Capital Management 2Q 2026 +5.4%
- Patient Capital Management 2Q25 +15.3%
- Patient Capital Management 3Q25 +14.1%
KSTR 2026-08-27 KSTR: Exposure To China's Chips And Potential Diversifier For SOXX
Chetan Woodun ACIW 2026-08-27 ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
SiliconBytes Insights 
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
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$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
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