Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Today
From X
Broken Moats on X
CAVA rose 30% in a week without news as Target and private-credit-exposed Ares also made sharp late-week moves.
Broken Moats on X
Magnite faces questions over its CFO departure, insider selling and AI risks outside connected TV as its ad-tech position consolidates.
Broken Moats on X
QXO’s pro forma capitalization is estimated at 1.1 billion shares and $8 billion of net debt after Kodiak, Beacon and TopBuild financing.
Broken Moats on X
Eli Lilly’s NLRP3 trials put it alongside Novo Nordisk, while AstraZeneca and smaller developers add to obesity-drug competition.
Broken Moats on X
forgot the ticker - de jour fraud is $INHD
Broken Moats on X
AltCap and Nvidia shareholders face criticism over promoting holdings to retail investors before potential share sales, drawing comparisons with Andrew Left.
Broken Moats on X
Shake Shack's $4 million AUV and 20% restaurant margins support new stores despite weaker travel and low-end consumers; at roughly 1x sales, the risk-reward is skewed upward.
Broken Moats on X
Amazon’s supply-chain services could pressure UPS, Saia and XPO on domestic parcel and LTL pricing as demand lags, despite trucking support from enforcement and AI-related flatbed demand.
Investor Letters
All letters- Sequoia Fund year ended December 31, 2025 +22.1%
- Sequoia Fund first quarter of 2026 -11.0%
- Palm Harbour Capital 2022 Q4
- Palm Harbour Capital first quarter of 2023
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 +13.7%
- Maran Capital Management 2Q 2026 +5.4%
- Patient Capital Management 2Q25 +15.3%
- Patient Capital Management 3Q25 +14.1%
KSTR 2026-08-27 KSTR: Exposure To China's Chips And Potential Diversifier For SOXX
Chetan Woodun ACIW 2026-08-27 ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
SiliconBytes Insights 
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
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$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
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