New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, November 15, 2026

Back to the front page

Intel Custom ASICs?

Intel’s custom ASIC business more than doubled last quarter as it pursues hyperscaler demand, AI accelerators and a stronger Intel Foundry.

INTC $317BQCOM $185B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Passed on: - $TK: screens at net cash ≈ market cap, but that cash is TNK's. Parent cash plus its TNK stake is ~$1.01B vs a ~$1.23B market cap. Buy TNK directly. - $DFIN: ran to $68, and the SEC's semiannual-reporting proposal hits filing volume. - $RICK: NY AG indictment, CEO and CFO out. - $BAER: ~$15M of equity under ~$650M of debt and preferred. - $CMRE / $DAC: big backlogs, but contracted net earnings don't cover EV yet. - $MATW, $ACTG, $ARKR, $CVEO: FCF or leverage. - $GRND: not cheap.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$NMM ~$89.03 Navios Partners: containerships, drybulk and tankers, mostly on charter. ~$2.58B mkt cap at ~0.7x book, ~4x annualized earnings. Contracted revenue jumped from $4.4B to $5.0B in one quarter after $735M of new charters, and it runs through 2037. That's ~1.9x the market cap. It's shrinking the unit count. Units are down 2% in a year on a new $200M buyback ($12M used in Q3), and net debt fell $55M to ~$1.74B. The discount is about governance. The payout is $0.06/qtr, Frangou controls it, and $703M of newbuilds was just ordered. But mgmt said it will "recalibrate" return of capital in Q1, the first sign that could change. No AlphaSense expert or broker coverage in 3 months. Nobody's looking.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TNK ~$89.43 Teekay Tankers runs 33 mid-size crude and product tankers, mostly spot. ~$3.10B mkt cap, $1.42B cash, no debt, ~$1.7B EV. First-half EPS was $10.87, already above all of 2025 ($10.10), and Q3 added $5.04. Q4 so far: Suezmax $272K/day and Aframax $208K/day, 30x+ its breakeven. Clarksons has year-end net cash at ~$53/sh. EV is only ~0.4x the value of the ships, so you're getting the fleet at ~40 cents on the dollar plus the cash. The catalyst: the board will consider a special dividend with Q4 results in February instead of May. The $0.25 base hasn't moved since 2023, so the pressure on the payout is all one way. It's also selling old ships at high prices (4 for $211M) and ordering newbuilds for 2030. Why rates could stay up: OECD inventories are at a 20-year low, the U.S. SPR is ~half its pre-2020 level, and the orderbook mostly just replaces old ships. Risks: rates mean-revert and Teekay Corp controls it. BofA raised 2026 EPS by $12 and still rates it Underperform.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$PRDO ~$28.99 Perdoceo runs online for-profit universities: Colorado Tech, American InterContinental, and Univ. of St. Augustine (PT/OT). ~44,400 students. Up ~3x in three years and +201% over five. ~$1.80B mkt cap, $777M of cash (~$12.50/sh, 43% of the price), no debt. FY26 guide is $3.15-3.19 adj. EPS: ~9x, ~5x ex-cash. It's quietly been buying itself back. Shares are down from 70M in 2019 to 62.6M (-11%), and the dividend went from nothing in 2022 to $0.17/qtr. South University (11 campuses, health sciences) is the next leg: $130-150M of cash plus an earnout, closing ~April. It adds a campus-based nursing business to an online model, bought with cash that was sitting idle. AlphaSense: a former admissions advisor says past enrollment was inflated by "ghost students," which a short report has also alleged. A Purdue Global exec says AI search is breaking the paid-lead funnel. Bull: low price points mean the new federal loan caps hit PRDO less than peers. CTU -0.5% is the number to watch.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$ARCO ~$7.21 "We are not technically in the food business. We are in the real estate business." — Harry Sonneborn, McDonald's first CFO Arcos Dorados is the world's largest independent McDonald's franchisee, with exclusive rights in 20 Latin American and Caribbean markets and 2,582 restaurants. ~$1.5B mkt cap, ~4% dividend yield, consensus EPS $0.80 for 2026 and $0.86 for 2027, so ~8-9x. LTM adj. FCF $156M (~10% of the market cap), net debt 1.3x EBITDA. McDonald's itself trades at 20x+ earnings. Its biggest franchisee, running the same system across a continent, trades at less than half that. Munger once described the ideal small-town portfolio as the best office building, the best apartments, the dominant car dealership and the top McDonald's. Headline earnings look worse than they are. Q3 EPS fell to $0.15 from $0.71 because last year included an $85.6M Brazilian tax credit. Excluding it, EBITDA was up 9%. Digital is where it's winning: 66% of sales, loyalty members +60% to ~38M, and 29% of sales now tied to an identified customer. October Investor Day targets: 550-600 openings in 2027-30, high-single to low-double-digit EBITDA growth, and a $25M buyback started. Bear: margins are off the peak (9.5% vs 12.8%), Brazil comps were only +3.5%, and the +46% in the south is mostly Argentine inflation. $1.3-1.5B of capex eats a lot of the FCF.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TTWO ~$228 Rockstar (GTA, Red Dead), 2K (NBA 2K, BioShock) and Zynga. GTA VI launches 11/19 after 13 years. It's the last big independent publisher on the public market: Microsoft bought Activision for $68.7B, and EA went private for $55B. Gabelli Funds owns it, and Gabelli's playbook is private market value plus a catalyst: - EA sold for ~7.4x revenue and Activision for ~7.8x. - On Value Line's $10.0B fiscal 2027 revenue (year ending March 2028), that's a $74-78B EV, or ~$390-410 a share. - It trades at ~4.4x the same revenue. The preorder data says people aren't buying the cheap version. Average selling price is ~$97, so most are taking the $99.99 edition over the $79.99 one. ~$1B of preorders already beats GTA V's $800M first day. Guidance looks sandbagged. It implies only ~30M GTA VI units vs a 37M broker forecast, and since 2007 Take-Two has beaten the low end of its bookings guide every year. Zelnick: "uncharted territory, with preorders trending well above our expectations." The long tail is GTA Online. Recurring spending is 81% of bookings, and experts expect battle passes and a creator marketplace this time. The last time a GTA came out, the stock went ~5x over four years. Mgmt expects to be net cash by March. Bear: an expert sees no buyer in the next 5 years (Sony is the only logical one). On Value Line's margins, 2027 EBITDA is only ~$1.8B, so the PMV needs GTA margins to look more like EA's.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$CLVT ~$2.33 Clarivate owns the databases researchers, universities and patent lawyers pay for every year: Web of Science, Journal Impact Factor, patent data, ProQuest. Down ~93% in five years, and it bottomed at ~$1.65 this fall. ~$1.49B mkt cap, ~$3.4B net debt after the ~$600M Life Sciences sale, ~$4.9B EV. FY26 guide: $865-885M adj. EBITDA and $320-340M FCF, ~5.6x EBITDA and a ~22% FCF yield. Consensus EPS is $0.67, so ~3.5x. The math that matters: equity is only ~30% of EV. Every $100M of debt paid down moves ~7% of the market cap to shareholders without the business growing at all. Three years of FCF at this pace retires ~$1B. It's tendering for 2028 notes below par now. Recurring revenue is most of the mix, with 45% EBITDA margins and organic ACV +1.8%. The new co-development deal with IP law firm Sterne Kessler is mgmt's answer to the AI question: put AI on top of its own patent data instead of letting someone else do it. AlphaSense expert calls cut both ways. Bull (11/11): the data quality is the moat, and AI run on Clarivate's content beats AI run on open data. Bear: AI is bolted onto a patchwork of acquired systems, and open data could close the gap in 2-5 years. Risks: AI, transactional revenue -58%, $284M of impairments YTD, ~3.9x levered.

Investor Letters

All letters

Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks
RXO · short

Rxo INC

RXO, a top-five U.S. freight broker, carries roughly 5x LTM EBITDA leverage and undisclosed off-balance-sheet liabilities after its 2022…

RXO $4.7B
Value Investors Club

Copper Fox Metals: Research Flash

Copper Fox’s C$9.1 million Schaft Creek program advances metallurgical, tailings, water and road studies toward a pre-feasibility study,…

TECK $30B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 89 of 295

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

376 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.