Calvin Blissett on X
$TNK ~$89.43 Teekay Tankers runs 33 mid-size crude and product tankers, mostly spot. ~$3.10B mkt cap, $1.42B cash, no debt, ~$1.7B EV. First-half EPS was $10.87, already above all of 2025 ($10.10), and Q3 added $5.04. Q4 so far: Suezmax $272K/day and Aframax $208K/day, 30x+ its breakeven. Clarksons has year-end net cash at ~$53/sh. EV is only ~0.4x the value of the ships, so you're getting the fleet at ~40 cents on the dollar plus the cash. The catalyst: the board will consider a special dividend with Q4 results in February instead of May. The $0.25 base hasn't moved since 2023, so the pressure on the payout is all one way. It's also selling old ships at high prices (4 for $211M) and ordering newbuilds for 2030. Why rates could stay up: OECD inventories are at a 20-year low, the U.S. SPR is ~half its pre-2020 level, and the orderbook mostly just replaces old ships. Risks: rates mean-revert and Teekay Corp controls it. BofA raised 2026 EPS by $12 and still rates it Underperform.
