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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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Google: DCF Analysis

Alphabet’s DCF sets a $384 base-case target from $295.77, betting Google Cloud and AI offset rising infrastructure spending and slower Search monetisation.

GOOGL $3.6T
Hated Moats 1 click

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

$NTWO, the SPAC taking robot-safety maker FORT Robotics public, may bring FORT only ~$41-59M of cash before fees, not the ~$74M its trust and private placement (PIPE) add up to, since the two overlap. The trust (the IPO cash held for shareholders) has ~$33M left after holders cashed out 82% of it on October 28, and the PIPE adds $41.25M. But PIPE investors can meet their commitments by keeping $NTWO shares in the trust instead of cashing them out, and the 10-Q says holders of ~1.41M shares (~$15M) had shown interest in doing so as of September 30, so the ~$74M counts those shares twice. The $41.25M PIPE sets the floor, and the other ~1.64M public shares in the trust add up to ~$17.8M more if their holders don't cash out at the merger vote. One cost did come down: BTIG, the bank that ran the 2024 IPO, agreed to take $2.0M at closing instead of $6.04M. The 10-Q also shows $NTWO hired Donerail, a firm affiliated with William Wyatt, as a deal advisor on September 29, the day Wyatt resigned from the board, for $350,000 plus a stake in 599,166 founder shares held by the sponsor (the group that set up $NTWO), so it barely touches FORT's cash. In my September 16 deep dive, the deal would bring in $200.8M before fees if no holders cashed out, or $39.73M if 95% did, so ~$41-59M lands it near the low end. So I read the deal as a ~$41M private round with a Nasdaq listing attached, plus whatever public holders decide to leave in the trust. What I'd want to see in the merger filing (S-4), which still hasn't been filed: 1) Revenue: FORT's audited 2025 revenue and its 2026 revenue through at least Q2. 2) New cash: How many of the ~1.41M shares end up counting toward the PIPE instead of new cash. 3) Fees: The full cost to close, which decides how much of the ~$41-59M FORT keeps.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

As an investor in $LYFT I really like this new partnership between DoorDash $DASH and Lyft. It will become even more valuable once/if the Instacart $CART deal closes. @davidrisher continues to execute on multiple dimensions (chauffeured cars, autonomous driving, partnerships, etc.). Yet the company trades for just six times trailing free cash flow. Yes, the robotaxis are coming but Lyft has the customers and is already partnering with Baidu and other companies on the autonomous driving front.

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks
DIDIY · long

Didi Global INC

Didi Global is China’s Uber, led by co-founder Wei Cheng, who owns $1 billion of Didi stock.

DIDIY $15B
Value Investors Club

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

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