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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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Intel Custom ASICs?

Intel’s custom ASIC business more than doubled last quarter as it pursues hyperscaler demand, AI accelerators and a stronger Intel Foundry.

INTC $317BQCOM $185B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Huawei's "N3-equivalent" label on the Kirin 9050 Pro is a transistor density comparison with $TSM's N3, not a claim of equal manufacturing technology. A node name such as 3 nm no longer measures a physical feature on the chip. It is an industry label for a rough range of transistor density. N3-equivalent means the Kirin 9050 Pro packs about as many high-density logic transistors into each square millimetre as TSMC's N3 does. A conventional chip builds all its transistors on a single tier of silicon. The Kirin 9050 Pro stacks two tiers, and Huawei's roadmap goes to four and then eight. Each doubling of tiers doubles the maximum density on the same footprint without finer lithography, the printing step that sets how small features can be and where Huawei is most constrained. In our view the shipping chip proves logic folding is commercially real, and the second tier is what makes the N3 density comparison credible. The same mechanism limits the claim: Huawei reached N3 density by stacking, so the label is a density claim, not a claim that Huawei can print transistors as small as TSMC's.
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Evan, it's disingenuous to offer Waymo as evidence of an instance where they should NOT have raised external capital. Fact is, $GOOGL Search is one of the most profitable and dominant businesses of all time supporting billions of cumulative earnings, FCF, and trillions in market cap. The margin for error at $SNAP is much thinner; the cumulative score card at SNAP measured by stock price, is not even in the same universe as $GOOGL. Sure they could have funded Waymo internally. Maybe they should have. But SNAP is not GOOGL. Not even in the same conversation.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Rising memory chip prices are hitting Toast’s $TOST hardware business, so the restaurant software and payments company has been buying chips early. $TOST’s hardware and professional services gross loss widened to $85M in Q3 from $57M a year ago, and the $225M lost through September already tops the $220M lost in all of 2025. It doesn’t help that hardware revenue was flat at $45M while hardware costs rose 29% to $130M. Management has tied that pressure to rising memory chip prices, which are largely outside Toast’s control. What $TOST can control is when and how it buys, and that’s exactly what it’s been doing. It’s been buying memory chips early, which took inventory from $114M (as of December 31, 2025) to $244M (as of September 30), with another $191M of hardware purchases committed over the next 12 months. President and CFO Elena Gomez said on the Q3 call that “nothing has really changed” since the Q2 call, when she said Toast had already cut the expected memory cost for both 2026 and 2027 by using earlier hardware generations, cheaper memory, and spot-market buying. $TOST also started buying Toast Capital loans from its bank partner and holding them itself in 2026, buying $145M through September after none in the first nine months of 2025. Gomez said that lets Toast keep the full return instead of just a fee for arranging the loans. But Toast now also takes the loss when a restaurant doesn’t repay, just as the FTC challenges its practice of making the full loan due when a customer cancels. So far, Gomez says defaults are “within our expectations,” and most new loans will still go through Toast’s existing program rather than its own balance sheet.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Anthropic grew revenue 47% in the quarter OpenAI undercut it on price Anthropic's Q3 numbers in the IPO filing are best read against Q2. Revenue was $17.0bn, up 47% quarter on quarter, after 144% growth in Q2. The slowdown came as OpenAI cut prices against Anthropic with generous usage resets and extra subscriber perks. Holding 47% growth through that is a strong result. Q4 could re-accelerate. Opus 5.5 does much more engineering work per dollar than Opus 4, and it is better on other tasks too. Compute gross margin fell to 42% from 52%. Ten points is a smaller drop than many would expect, given what new capacity costs. My assumptions: capacity cost of about $35bn per GW in Q2 and about $50bn per GW for the latest AI data centers in Q3. Cost takes 48% of revenue at a 52% margin and 58% at a 42% margin. So revenue per GW rose from about $73bn ($35bn / 0.48) to about $86bn ($50bn / 0.58). Algorithmic gains offset a good part of the higher capacity cost. For next year I expect compute gross margin to keep drifting down slowly, perhaps a few more points. In my view, the higher cost of new capacity means more of the value goes to companies that can solve the energy bottleneck: SpaceX ($SPCX), and neo-clouds that have power, such as $IREN and Nebius. I will be tracking this as the roadshow starts this week.

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

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