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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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Google: DCF Analysis

Alphabet’s DCF sets a $384 base-case target from $295.77, betting Google Cloud and AI offset rising infrastructure spending and slower Search monetisation.

GOOGL $3.6T
Hated Moats

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The cash flow statement adds share-based compensation back to operating cash flow, since it's a non-cash expense: the company paid its employees in shares, not cash. Over the 12 months through October 2022, Intuit $INTU had $3.81 billion of free cash flow, a 3.5% yield on its $109 billion market value. Move its $1.45 billion of share-based compensation to financing activities, and the yield falls to 2.2%. That's roughly $2.20 of free cash flow per year for every $100 of Intuit stock, not $3.50.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Is Freedom the one subsidizing itself and financial ecosystem through that whole share issuance mechanism nuance? Given that can’t they not really afford to burn money on an uncertain payback in marketplace? This could be the “dagger” toppling them and their pyramaid scheme esque structure which would benefit $KSPI. This is disconfirming evidence so in the spirit of Darwin I will be monitoring this to see how it plays out. I will try and gather the specifics on what I’m alluding to and come back to this
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TTWO ~$228 Rockstar (GTA, Red Dead), 2K (NBA 2K, BioShock) and Zynga. GTA VI launches 11/19 after 13 years. It's the last big independent publisher on the public market: Microsoft bought Activision for $68.7B, and EA went private for $55B. Gabelli Funds owns it, and Gabelli's playbook is private market value plus a catalyst: - EA sold for ~7.4x revenue and Activision for ~7.8x. - On Value Line's $10.0B fiscal 2027 revenue (year ending March 2028), that's a $74-78B EV, or ~$390-410 a share. - It trades at ~4.4x the same revenue. The preorder data says people aren't buying the cheap version. Average selling price is ~$97, so most are taking the $99.99 edition over the $79.99 one. ~$1B of preorders already beats GTA V's $800M first day. Guidance looks sandbagged. It implies only ~30M GTA VI units vs a 37M broker forecast, and since 2007 Take-Two has beaten the low end of its bookings guide every year. Zelnick: "uncharted territory, with preorders trending well above our expectations." The long tail is GTA Online. Recurring spending is 81% of bookings, and experts expect battle passes and a creator marketplace this time. The last time a GTA came out, the stock went ~5x over four years. Mgmt expects to be net cash by March. Bear: an expert sees no buyer in the next 5 years (Sony is the only logical one). On Value Line's margins, 2027 EBITDA is only ~$1.8B, so the PMV needs GTA margins to look more like EA's.

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks
SE · long

Sea Limited

Sea Limited is pitched as a GARP long, backed by AI tailwinds, founder-led execution and emerging-markets exposure despite competitive and…

SE $46B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

PEP $198B
TSOH Investment Research 8 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive: Not A No Brainer

AppLovin is down 48% YTD after its first guidance miss, with revenue 1% below expectations and EPS 2.5% short, reviving fears of an adtech…

APP $136B
Capitalist Letters 7 clicks

Amazon’s AI Economics

Amazon combines AWS AI infrastructure, model-company stakes and retail automation, with AWS targeting $1 trillion in annual revenue over…

AMZN $2.9T
Modern Value Investing 8 clicks

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