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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

The most interesting lesson Jensen Huang taught me And gave PTSD to Google executives over from his leadership at $NVDA: Was that if a critical material can be bought out for spare change eg. ~$400m (FY2028 Photonics-SOI revenue forecast for $SOI) And trigger tens of billions in economic impact to competitors for not securing supply: We're going to see game theory bottleneck supply procurement actually accelerate upstream through 2027, with or without him. I see Morgan Stanley's list highlighting CCL, ABF, PCBs, optical module components as interesting. However; I'd put it through my own narrower lens, especially focusing on smaller component cost chokepoints + bottlenecks that doesn't cost much to secure capacity over. Deleveraging/negative sentiment is indiscriminately moving the theme up and down together, so hard to argue individual fundamentals at this point. Reflecting on 2026, I also prob need to be more selective of companies entering 2027: But there's going to be a lot of outsized opportunities in bottlenecks... as new architectures like NPO/CPO emerge across the ecosystem.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The biggest money in public markets is made when perception diverges dramatically from reality. Think of betting on sports on Kalshi/Polymarket. You’re not making a fortune betting on the #1 team to beat the #2 team. You’re making it betting on the 99-to-1 underdog when you realize the odds are completely wrong… A few situations that come to mind: - PSPs ($CIFR, $WULF, $APLD, $RIOT): Financing fears vs. the value of contracted power and development pipelines. - $TLN: PJM regulatory overhang vs. underlying FCF generation. - $FSLR: Fears of losing 45X credits vs. durable domestic manufacturing economics. What other situations fit this framework?

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
DLTR · long

Dollar Tree INC

Dollar Tree is long after divesting Family Dollar, separating its stronger banner from its weaker business.

DLTR $26B
Value Investors Club

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $17B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $576B
Rebound Capital 10 clicks

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