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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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Intel Custom ASICs?

Intel’s custom ASIC business more than doubled last quarter as it pursues hyperscaler demand, AI accelerators and a stronger Intel Foundry.

INTC $317BQCOM $185B
Chipstrat 3 clicks

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@convequity

Convequity on X

Marvell buying Lumentum is easier to understand strategically than financially. Four days after $MRVL announced its all-stock acquisition of $LITE, I understand why both sides want it. I remain unconvinced by the shareholder economics at the announced $115bn enterprise value. Smart bulls long $LITE after mid-2026 for its UHP CW story, but we don't. Lumentum's ultra-high-power laser advantage depends on the optical architecture customers choose. Moving the light source closer to the optical engine can reduce losses and change the power required. Today's component bottleneck may become less valuable as the system design changes. External lasers still offer cooling and replacement advantages. Broadcom $AVGO uses them too; its strength is coordinating switch silicon, optical engines and packaging. Huawei's Hi-ONE takes a different route with a built-in light source. Both reinforce the importance of controlling the broader design. That helps explain Marvell's motivation. In AI clusters, weaker networking can leave expensive accelerators idle. A cheaper networking component may never compensate for the lost compute. Buying Lumentum gives Marvell more control over the optical technology it needs to compete. But shareholders have to fund that integration. Marvell holders exchange roughly one-third of the combined company for Lumentum. Lumentum holders receive a fixed number of Marvell shares, leaving them exposed to Marvell's share price and the combined company's execution. We have always being negative on $MRVL vs. $AVGO. Always a tier 2 mgt in both vision and execution. The expected first-half-2028 close is a nightmare for a catch-up strategy. Both companies can keep developing products, but the benefits of combined ownership remain deferred. Broadcom and Huawei have time to advance their designs and deepen customer deployments. By closing, the competitive gap could be wider. I would assign no value to an NVIDIA $NVDA rescue. NVIDIA already has investments and partnerships with both companies. It can access their technology without acquiring the business; a takeover would still depend on price and regulatory clearance. The strategic rationale is understandable. The shareholder case needs customer wins and earnings that justify the ownership exchanged, integration costs and time lost. I remain skeptical.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$CCLD: They can reach it in the public markets with continued execution imo as they show AI resilience and benefits as well as continued software development, tuck in acquisitions and integration of Medsphere without too much churn . They have before achieved those multiples in the public markets. That said I would love to be the one to take them private, I think anyone doing so gets a “platform” and a steal and want that to happen because I have so many opportunities I could easily redeploy the cash in names where I have just as high conviction.

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

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