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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Moves like this $ADIG should not happen absent some genuinely unforeseen event or force majeure. If a public company is even remotely transparent with investors, expectations shouldn’t be so far removed from reality that a single earnings report wipes out 40–50% of its market cap. Granted, this is probably more common in smaller companies with limited analyst coverage, but if I were a public company CEO and this happened on my watch, I’d consider it a serious failure of investor communication and expectation management…
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Risk: In addition to having significant revenue at risk in China from future legislation changes (or enforcement of current legislation), I wonder if $NVDA may end up held liable for looking the other way as chips it sold ended up in China illegally. If fined for the value of all past sales, that could be many tens of billions of dollars. From @SemiAnalysis_ on Jensens ousting and illegal chip sales to China: “Our data shows more than 1.5GW of Nvidia chips, which are restricted, still ultimately ended up in China. This figure doesn’t even include chips that Nvidia created to circumvent US rules, a story we originally broke. We believe the US intelligence community is a large part of the push to get Jensen out of Nvidia. Specifically, we believe it is likely that RASA or similar legislation, which has already passed the house, will move forward. AI and chip restrictions on China are going to ramp now much faster with the biggest defender Jensen, gone.”

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks
AEGXF · long

Aecon Group Inc.

Aecon Group’s long thesis targets 50-80% share-price upside over 6-12 months as the company shifts beyond a complex special situation.

AEGXF $2.7B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $19B
Hated Moats 5 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.6T
Net Interest 3 clicks

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