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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Moves like this $ADIG should not happen absent some genuinely unforeseen event or force majeure. If a public company is even remotely transparent with investors, expectations shouldn’t be so far removed from reality that a single earnings report wipes out 40–50% of its market cap. Granted, this is probably more common in smaller companies with limited analyst coverage, but if I were a public company CEO and this happened on my watch, I’d consider it a serious failure of investor communication and expectation management…
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Risk: In addition to having significant revenue at risk in China from future legislation changes (or enforcement of current legislation), I wonder if $NVDA may end up held liable for looking the other way as chips it sold ended up in China illegally. If fined for the value of all past sales, that could be many tens of billions of dollars. From @SemiAnalysis_ on Jensens ousting and illegal chip sales to China: “Our data shows more than 1.5GW of Nvidia chips, which are restricted, still ultimately ended up in China. This figure doesn’t even include chips that Nvidia created to circumvent US rules, a story we originally broke. We believe the US intelligence community is a large part of the push to get Jensen out of Nvidia. Specifically, we believe it is likely that RASA or similar legislation, which has already passed the house, will move forward. AI and chip restrictions on China are going to ramp now much faster with the biggest defender Jensen, gone.”

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks
BTU · long

Peabody Energy Corporation

Peabody Energy, ticker BTU, is a low-cost producer of thermal and metallurgical coal with mines in the United States and Australia.

BTU $2.1B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

The Week Ahead

Micron’s November revenue guide will test whether an 86% gross margin reflects a structural memory shortage or a cyclical peak, while…

MU $881BNVDA $3.9T
CV's Substack

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $66BTPL $20B
Rebound Capital 9 clicks

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