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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

On a serious note, $CODI is one of the more glaring mispricings I’ve ever seen. People can argue whether NAV is $25 or $40/share, but I’m convinced that if you liquidated the entire company tomorrow, the assets would be worth at least 2x where the stock trades today. So why does this divergence exist? And more importantly, what closes the gap? Asset sales, replacing management, simplifying the structure, eliminating the governance discount? You don’t even need the stock to trade at 100% of NAV. What gets it to 80%? And at $12/share, how much downside are you really underwriting relative to the potential upside? That’s the asymmetry that interests me. I just don’t think there’s enough eyeballs on this given the size…
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The biggest money in public markets is made when perception diverges dramatically from reality. Think of betting on sports on Kalshi/Polymarket. You’re not making a fortune betting on the #1 team to beat the #2 team. You’re making it betting on the 99-to-1 underdog when you realize the odds are completely wrong… A few situations that come to mind: - PSPs ($CIFR, $WULF, $APLD, $RIOT): Financing fears vs. the value of contracted power and development pipelines. - $TLN: PJM regulatory overhang vs. underlying FCF generation. - $FSLR: Fears of losing 45X credits vs. durable domestic manufacturing economics. What other situations fit this framework?

Investor Letters

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 2 clicks

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks
ACN · long

Accenture PLC

Accenture has been repriced as an AI loser despite its expected near-term benefit from AI adoption.

ACN $148B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Apple Turnover

Apple Pay reaches 785 million users and has become Apple’s springboard into cards, transfers and savings, giving it a fintech advantage…

AAPL $5.2T
Net Interest

An Open Letter to the TPL Board

Texas Pacific Land shareholders urge two board additions, data-center expertise, and capital spending beyond mineral royalties toward…

TPL $20B
310 Value’s Newsletter 5 clicks

Software Continued

Microsoft, SAP, Oracle, Adobe and Intuit generate 90.2% of listed IT software net income, with 32.8% EBIT margins.

MSFT $3.9TADBE $95B
Global Outperformers

Defying the Surveys

PNC CEO Bill Demchak says consumer spending, savings, activity and loan growth contradict record-low University of Michigan consumer…

PNC $92B
Net Interest

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