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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

Interesting setup in $VOYA ahead of Q3 earnings and TCIM’s November 24 no-confidence referendum. Can certainly see a path to $150+ in a strategic takeout given the quality of the retirement franchise… My hesitation is how much activist premium is already embedded in the stock. Shares are up ~30% since TCIM surfaced in April, and the referendum is non-binding. If Q3 disappoints and the activist fails to gain traction, hard to see why this couldn’t trade back toward the pre-activist ~$75 level. Love the potential upside, less convinced by the asymmetry at ~$97… Thoughts welcome.
@SouthernValue95 1 click

SouthernValue on X

Ramp data shows VC-backed companies are spending 10x more per employee/month on AI vs. PE-owned and other companies. A bearish interpretation could be: token spend is being driven by VC-backed companies, making demand vulnerable to swings in capital cycle. Valid! However, on a longer timeframe, I think this is quite interesting as a leading indicator for the direction of software companies (VC-backed companies are mostly software or service-as-software companies). New companies are being built with a larger ratio of tokens vs. humans. Look at Anthropic itself, which pays 1/6 as much on intelligence as its customers (since it sells tokens marked up at 85% GM): Anthropic is spending ~9x more on compute than human salaries despite having access to tokens at cost. Cash payroll is annualizing ~$2B for a company with ~$60B of run-rate revenue in 1H26. Anthropic employs just 5k people. Wild efficiency in human capital. I suspect that the great software companies of the next decade, both new and incumbent, will insert AI into every aspect of their products so that using them feels like magic, and work happens seamlessly. Building a presentation in Claude feels like magic: I tell it what I want to put on a slide, and it appears like magic. As a user of Ramp, their products feel the same way: I make a purchase, take a picture of a receipt, and the expense is logged into my accounting system appropriately without the need for a human to type into a blank box. I think we will see most software become AI-native or be replaced by software that is. This is a significant opportunity for incumbents and startups alike. And I think this is a huge source of future token spend that will go to $AMZN and $GOOG where most software companies are built (on AWS and GCP) and where AMZN and GOOG are building the platforms for software companies to build AI capabilities into their products with choice around compute and model, embedded safety and governance, and unlimited scale. Amazon CEO @ajassy said on a podcast this week that AI spend is currently a "barbell-shape" with insatiable compute appetite of the AI labs on one side, and corporates using AI for cost savings on the other. In the middle is tokens embedded into "core workloads" which he says is growing but small today, but he thinks in 5 years might be the biggest category of token spend.

Investor Letters

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Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $35B
Daniel Romero 5 clicks

Nvidia’s Future | My Question Marks

Nvidia’s future is framed around alleged China GPU diversion, tighter export controls and supply-chain risk after Jensen Huang’s claimed…

NVDA $4T
P Equity Research 4 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $190B
Chipstrat 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $37B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

QXO Inc Earnings Update: Q3 2026

QXO's Q3 sales rose 79% to $4.9 billion after TopBuild and Kodiak acquisitions, while acquisition debt lifted interest expense to $163…

QXO $13B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 2 clicks

Cerrado Gold: Research Note

Cerrado Gold will acquire Argentina’s Manantial Espejo mine from Pan American Silver for $20 million and targets a 2027 restart funded by…

PAAS $16B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

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