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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Root $ROOT, the car insurer that prices drivers on how they actually drive, closed Friday at $43.37/share, down 24.1% in two days from $57.15 before its Q3 report, even though it earned $14.4M against a $5.4M loss a year ago. In my August 10 update, I said $ROOT was riding out the soft market (when large carriers cut prices and spend heavily to win customers) by protecting margins instead of buying growth, and Q3 showed exactly that trade-off. Premiums in force (the annualized premium on every active policy) fell 5.4% y/y, nearly double Q2’s 2.8% drop. Growth in policies offset the lower premium per policy through Q1, but policies were flat from June at 484,037 (+3.8% y/y) while premium per policy fell 8.9% to $1,441. Basically, this means that $ROOT’s customers are paying less on average, and Root’s customer count has barely moved since June, so the total it collects from customers each year is shrinking (down 5.4% from a year earlier, to $1.40B). CEO Alex Timm said larger carriers raised marketing and cut prices during the quarter, so $ROOT gave up direct-channel growth where returns fell below its targets. CFO Megan Binkley expects year-end policies in force to be “broadly in line with the third quarter.” But new business through partners and independent agents still rose 19% y/y and made up 52% of the total, up from 44% a year earlier. The quarter’s big partnership win was Carvana $CVNA, the online used-car seller, which renewed its embedded insurance deal (coverage sold with the car) on August 31. Timm said the program had sold “well over 250,000 policies” by then. Carvana’s new warrants for up to ~1.5M shares (~10% of the share count) vest on policy milestones through August 2028, so it only earns them by selling more Root policies. In October, $ROOT also launched a pilot with Hyundai, one of its existing partners. At 14 Phoenix-area dealerships, buyers who finance or lease a new Hyundai through Hyundai Capital America get six months of Root insurance free if they enroll and qualify. The pilot puts $ROOT in front of car buyers at the dealership, the way Carvana does online.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Turn around's are tough, but this is interesting category: $ETD (Ethan Allen). Earnings results were uninspiring to say the least, but the company is overcapitalized and now just went through a massive transition of management and the board. Take a gander. This is an overqualified board for a company of this size and certainly relative to the other players in the home furnishings space. Doug Bergeron is an aggressive guy, some of you who knew him at Verifone probably have mixed emotions, but he's the kind of person needed here. Lots that can be done with this brand. It's not hard to see how $ETD can double in size (or more) with some basic blocking and tackling around ecomm, retail expansion, and improved wholesale execution. This is a good brand that is hugely undermonetized.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, which turns tungsten into parts for U.S. missiles and jets, has raised $325.4M in 2026, including its April IPO and $200M from the U.S. Department of War (DoW), and ~$81M of cash was left after it paid for stakes in two tungsten miners in October. $124.7M bought 4.99% of Masan High-Tech Materials (UPCoM: MSR), $ELMT's longtime Vietnamese supplier, and $24.7M bought 3.5M shares, plus warrants, of Blue Moon Metals $BMM, owner of the Springer tungsten mine in Nevada. Operations used another $60.7M through October 2 ($53.1M in Q3 alone), mostly to build inventory, which more than doubled to $152.8M from $69.7M as of December 31. Counting the $124.7M set aside for Masan as cash, net cash went from the $60.5M I calculated after the DoW deal in my September 17 update to ~$0 as of October 2. At $21.99, $ELMT is 4.4% below the $23 I used in September, but its EV rose to ~$811M from $784M, mostly because of the Q3 inventory build. The DoW's remaining $250M can't arrive before March 2027, comes in at most $50M per six-month window, and each draw has to name its use and meet the DoW's conditions. $ELMT's plan for the DoW money still has more than $290M to fund: (1) $165M+ to upgrade and expand its three U.S. plants, (2) $75M for its 70% of the joint venture restarting Springer's processing plant, and (3) a $50M advance to Blue Moon against future Springer tungsten. So until the first DoW draw lands, any spending on Springer, the plant upgrades, or more inventory comes from the ~$81M of cash, $18.1M of unused credit lines, and whatever cash the business generates.

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