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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $778M
The Value Road 4 clicks

From X

@RagingVentures 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

It is hard to game where $NVDA shares go short term, but I think it is already clear that there is too much capacity in the GPU/TPU business. Major players include: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOG, $AMZN (selling TPUs via cloud tokens), $MRVL, and $AVGO. The sector’s fierce price competition is already evident in the form of loans, loan guarantees, direct investments, and juicy equity warrant packages. $AMD effectively gave up as much as 15%+ of its company to convince $META and OpenAI to use their products. Gun to my head, I think you could be short a basket of $AMD, $AVGO, $MRVL, and $NVDA and do very well over the next 2-3 years as the cycle matures.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.1B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks
LEEEF · long

Leef Brands INC

LEEF Brands, California’s largest cannabis extract manufacturer, supplies distillate, live resin and rosin to leading California brands.

LEEEF $49M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Alta Fox XPEL Presentation

XPEL targets 26% EBIT margins by FY28 after its 2022-2025 investment cycle, with Alta Fox projecting roughly doubled EPS from FY25.

XPEL $1B
Research - Alta Fox Capital

2025 Bilbel Capital Annual Letter

Bilbel Capital’s 2025 letter details CareCloud’s $16.5M Medsphere acquisition, targeting $35–40M EBITDA in 2026, and recounts losses from…

CCLD $112M
Bilbel's Substack 2 clicks

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