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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 4 clicks

From X

@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

It is hard to game where $NVDA shares go short term, but I think it is already clear that there is too much capacity in the GPU/TPU business. Major players include: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOG, $AMZN (selling TPUs via cloud tokens), $MRVL, and $AVGO. The sector’s fierce price competition is already evident in the form of loans, loan guarantees, direct investments, and juicy equity warrant packages. $AMD effectively gave up as much as 15%+ of its company to convince $META and OpenAI to use their products. Gun to my head, I think you could be short a basket of $AMD, $AVGO, $MRVL, and $NVDA and do very well over the next 2-3 years as the cycle matures.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks
ENS · short

Enersys

EnerSys faces a short thesis as data-center and warehouse vehicle customers shift from lead-acid batteries to lithium-ion.

ENS $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Google’s AI Return on Investment

Alphabet’s $132 billion AI capex produced an estimated 49% post-tax incremental ROIC once only in-service assets are counted, versus a…

GOOGL $3.6T
Bristlemoon Capital 3 clicks

American Express: Q2 2026 Results

American Express reiterated 2026 EPS growth guidance of 12.5% to 16.4% after Q2 volume and revenue growth, while operational and accounting…

AXP $217B
Librarian Capital's Research Library

Seer

Seer trades at $2.04 against $3.90 per share of net cash as activists press a board that rejected five buyout proposals and won reelection.

SEER $88M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

Reflections on quality investing

A 10-factor quality table ranks companies by moats, pricing power, balance sheets and growth, then applies it to 10 Buffett investments.

WFC $258B
Global Outperformers

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