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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

In addition to having significant revenue at risk in China from future legislation changes (or enforcement of current legislation), I wonder if $NVDA may end up held liable for looking the other way as chips it sold ended up in China illegally. If fined for the value of all past sales, that could be many tens of billions of dollars. From @SemiAnalysis_ on Jensens ousting and illegal chip sales to China: “Our data shows more than 1.5GW of Nvidia chips, which are restricted, still ultimately ended up in China. This figure doesn’t even include chips that Nvidia created to circumvent US rules, a story we originally broke. We believe the US intelligence community is a large part of the push to get Jensen out of Nvidia. Specifically, we believe it is likely that RASA or similar legislation, which has already passed the house, will move forward. AI and chip restrictions on China are going to ramp now much faster with the biggest defender Jensen, gone.”
@convequity

Convequity on X

Jensen Huang is not Steve Jobs. It is way bigger than that! Jensen Huang has resigned as Nvidia's CEO, and CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. The Jobs comparison comes naturally, but it undersells what is happening here. When Steve Jobs passed away, $AAPL Apple's structural leadership, moat and scaling path were clear. The next captain inherited a ship whose course was set. $NVDA Nvidia's are not. It is facing the biggest challenge in its leadership from all fronts: Custom ASICs by $AVGO, merchant GPUs by $AMD, Chinese alternatives by Huawei, and numerous AI chip startups with unique architectures such as $CBRS. All while Nvidia's CUDA moat is facing a shake-up with the prevalence of inference and coding agents — factors we anticipated back in 2023. Most AI compute is moving to inference, where CUDA protects less and the entry barriers are lower. Our December 2023 NVDA MSU note flagged three things: lower entry barriers for inference chips, the CUDA moat getting circumvented as the transformer architecture hardens, and AI spreading into every aspect of applications as copilot and automated agents. Apple was a steady ship sailing on a calm ocean, with moderate potential and a tailwind. Nvidia is a speedy Ultra Large Container Vessel sailing on a tumultuous ocean, with storms but also a huge tailwind, where things are changing fast and growing rapidly. That kind of ship needs the captain to stay on board, to adjust and remain adaptive. Jensen is the only one who can do that. Anyone else will only do a worse job. The most ironical outcome can be the most likely outcome. The resignation knocked the stock down as much as 14% intraday before buyers pared the loss to roughly 4%. The dip-buying instinct is already on display. Nvidia may well go woke in the years to come — drifting from the technical obsession that made it fast. In the near term, once the issue settles, people may buy the dip and claim that Jensen doesn't matter that much to the company, while the coming quarters still report stellar earnings. The true damage will only show up years later, because the semiconductor industry is a long game — a much longer game than many laymen, including politicians, understand. We expect that damage to land in product cycles and market share, not in next quarter's report. Full note: Convequity MSU: NVIDIA, Dec 2023

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