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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Bulls N’ Bears, an Australian investment news site, called American West Metals’ $AWMLF new exploration target at its Storm copper project in Arctic Canada a “monster maiden exploration target.” The maiden exploration target estimates 110-214Mt @ 0.59-1.02% copper outside the current resource, or 646,000t to 2.2Mt of contained copper (2.3-7.9x Storm’s 276,000t resource). An exploration target is a range of what an area could hold before there’s enough drilling to estimate a resource, and $AWMLF calls its own “conceptual in nature.” Here’s where the seven target areas sit relative to Storm’s existing deposits (in red), with Chevron ~30km south in the inset. But most of the target rests on Storm’s existing deposits used as templates, or on little to no drilling: → Deeps Zone and Central Graben (345,000-777,000t): Assumes three more deposits the size of Cyclone, Storm’s largest, one below Cyclone and two in the Central Graben, backed by 14 widely spaced holes. → SE Stratabound and SE Structural (164,000-369,000t): Sized from three existing deposits (Chinook, Lightning Ridge, and Corona) ±20%, assumed to repeat down to ~300m below surface, plus nearby ground tested by 17 broadly spaced holes. → Tornado (95,000-859,000t): Largely unexplored ground 5km east of the deposits, where the two intercepts the release lists grade just 0.12-0.14% copper. → Chevron (14,000-123,000t): ~30km south of the deposits, with no holes drilled yet. The best intercepts in the Deeps Zone and Central Graben also start more than 300m down the hole, far deeper than the open pits the pre-feasibility study (PFS) plans. Even the extensions of the existing resource (28,000-64,000t), the part of the target closest to the deposits, grade 0.53-0.80% copper, below the reserve’s 1.2%. Managing director Dave O’Neill plans to develop Storm first and fund growth from it, since an operating mine “is expected to significantly reduce the costs of exploration,” he said in the release. So I don’t attach any value to the exploration target. It shows where $AWMLF plans to drill and run geophysical surveys in 2027, but little of it would add years to the PFS mine.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

Roblox: Accepting Uncertainty

Roblox reached 144 million DAUs and 123.9 billion engagement hours by 2025, but Q3 FY26 bookings are set to fall mid-teens, renewing calls…

RBLX $38B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

indie Semiconductor Deep Dive

Indie Semiconductor’s automotive sensing chips are finding robotics demand, while industrial, navigation and quantum businesses sit inside…

INDI $561M
CV's Substack 1 click

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $8.6B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.

ABNB $108B
MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

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