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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

ARR growth rate is stable finally, but what about their profitability? Think about how easy it is to game ARR and how many company's did successfully before collapsing. not sure it will happen to $evlv, but it does provide a warning to over relying on company derived KPIs, especially if that company has had a history of changing metrics, changing managements, and being successfully sued for providing inaccurate marketing material. Profitability is not improving and that is not a good sign for their LT goal you can be a company that grows revenues and expands margins, you can be a company that grows revenues but contracts margins, you can be a company that grows margins but contracts revenues. you can be a company that loses revenues and margins at the same time. which one is evolv $evlv bulls will argue that we should wait for another quarter or two before we see an inflection in profits. that eventually they will scale into their business. i'm afraid to say that i'm suspicious that profits will materialize in any meaningful way ever. if the technology was so transformative and so much better than competitors, and that they have thousands and thousands of customers already, then why is it still losing money?
@valuedontlie 1 click

Colin King on X

Some initial $KBR RemainCo thoughts: Investors thought they were getting a ~20% margin business in STS which turns out to be 10% after corp costs + normalized JV earnings... some of this was expected, but looks like a bigger reset From that lower base, it's expected to grow 10% annually with 12%+ margins and minimal capex which is great No formal 2027 guidance but implying $425M EBITDA and $3.5B revenue (12% margin)... biggest no-no for spin-offs are mismanaging year 1 expectations from carve-out to standalone financials Capital allocation was sort of glossed over... dividend is gone, no commitment on buybacks, haven't done M&A at STS in 5+ years... They'll still pursue megaprojects (obv can't guide to these tho) so maybe some capital allocation goes there? 85% FCF conversion (from net income) is pretty low for an asset-light business too... sounds like this is a working capital intensive business model Hmm...
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So there's the positive fundamental long term outlook that I've interpreted. On the other hand, there's near term headwinds that I highlighted above, which markets are pricing in. Negatives I saw near term were $MSFT Vineland pushing back into Q2 2027, which delays revenue recognition. Alongside 2026/2027 capex hikes + downward revision of next quarter revenue. We've seen markets punish near term execution delays with $AAOI recently too. For long term, I don't see this earnings as negative, given 100% prepayments, compute prices going up, new contracts and their subsidiaries growing.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Regarding $NBIS earnings results: To show you how fast they're growing... from Q2 to Q3: Revenue: $582.3M -> $980.8M (+68% QoQ) Adjusted EBITDA: $236.2M -> $465.8M (+97% QoQ) AI cloud adj. EBITDA margin: 49.7% -> 53.2% Net Income: −$190.4M -> −$37.5M ARR has reached $6.4B at the end of Sep. In terms of management commentary: - Since start of Q3, Nebius signed $12B+ of new contracts - Average GPU pricing rose 20%+ sequentially, payback shortened from 22M -> 19M - On Q3 deals, prepayments covered 100% of associated capex, up from 50–60% in Q2 (insane for financing) - Contract value per MW exceeded $25M+ from Q3 up from ~$20M Q2 - 5GW contracted power year end With $10B of committed customer prepayments in 2026 and $17B-$20B in 2027. Now, prepayments and borrowing against existing contracts covers ~75-85% of 2027 capex. On subsidiaries: 1. Avride - 250 autonomous vehicles fleet, over 100,000 passenger rides (with companies like $UBER). Fully driverless robotaxi targeted H1 2027. 2. Toloka - Revenue doubled sequentially 3. Enterprise cloud - Databricks and Datadog selected Neibus. Along with a new agreement with Snowflake. 4. Tavily - Over 3M developers now with $IBM post-training a core partner. 5. ClickHouse - Nothing about new secondary valuations, but we can see valuations growing 6. TokenFactory - Contract value grew 17x sequentially The primary negative I saw was that 2026 guidance is now on the lower end (near ~$3B), due to $MSFT capacity deliveries slipping to Q2 2027. Apparently there was an execution miss with a third party partner DataOne. Temporary generators were retired amid permitting issues before enough $BE fuel cell capacity came online. Capex also increased in 2026 from $20B-$25B to $27B, while revising revenue expectations downward. So near-term unfortunate headwinds kinda reminiscent of AOI earnings; however long term I think Nebius will take care of you. For 2027 outlook: - $12-13 billion revenue, capex of $40-45 billion, pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027. Very operationally bullish, as seen with prepayments covering capex, GPU premiums increasing. Main downside is near-term execution risk from third parties, causing near-term delays and revenue recognition. Great quarter from Nebius overall.

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