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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

If $SPCX makes its own chips at Terafab, our model has a gigawatt of orbital compute costing about $10 billion to build, down from about $33 billion with purchased GPUs. In orbit, the silicon decides the returns more than Starship does. This comes from our SPCX Special View valuation model. It estimates how fast capacity comes online, limited by equipment supply and launches. The first gigawatt reaches orbit in 2027. Our Base case buys GPUs. Chips and racks are about 80% of the cost, launch about 11%. Each gigawatt earns $40 billion a year renting out compute through 2028, falling to $20 billion from 2031 as GPU-hour prices fall. Terafab is Musk's planned chip factory. In our Full Terafab case, chips and racks cost one-eighth as much, about a third of the total, and launch becomes the largest item at 37%. A customer like Anthropic would want its own chips rather than rent SPCX's. Terafab chips would most likely run SPCX's own AI models, sold through an API. We assume that earns 50% more. Over a seven-year satellite life, a gigawatt's net present value is about $88 billion with purchased GPUs, $111 billion renting out Terafab compute, and $172 billion running SPCX's own models. The fleet reaches 140 gigawatts in 2036. Multiplying 140 by $172 billion values SPCX at about $24 trillion. This counts the cost of building and launching the hardware, but not of developing SPCX's own models.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

In August, I noted that the design in the PEA (the first-pass study) for American West Metals’ $AWMLF Storm copper project meant no tailings dam and no process chemicals. In the PFS (the more detailed study that replaced it), initial capex came in at US$81.0M, 70.9% above the PEA’s US$47.4M, and pre-development capex rose to US$27.3M from US$14.7M. So Storm needs US$108.3M before first copper, up 74.4% from US$62.1M, plus US$10.2M of expansion capex later (US$118.5M over the mine life). Processing drove most of the increase, at US$38.0M of initial capex against US$9.4M in the PEA. Test work showed that crushing broke the ore along grain boundaries and pushed more copper into the fines that bypass the ore sorters (machines that pick copper-bearing rock out of the waste). So the plant now adds a small flotation circuit (which uses chemical reagents to float copper minerals off finely ground ore) and a US$4.2M tailings facility, both of which the PEA’s design of ore sorters and gravity separators avoided. The PFS adds flotation reagents and filtered tailings, which get stacked dry. Storm’s footprint is still small next to a conventional flotation mill’s, but regulators now have reagents and tailings to review. With the flotation circuit, the plant recovers 68% of the copper in the ore, or 103,000t over the mine life, up from ~61% (~83,000t from 10.3Mt @ 1.32% copper) in the PEA plan. But the product grades 15% copper, down from the PEA’s 17.1%, so Storm has to bag and ship 41.3% more of it (688,000t vs. 487,000t) during the 5-6 weeks each summer when ships can reach the site. Over the copper the plant recovers, operating costs come to ~US$3.17/lb vs. ~US$2.66/lb in the PEA (total operating costs over recovered pounds, before silver credits), or 19.4% more per pound. So the PFS mine recovers 23.8% more copper than the PEA’s, but each pound costs 19.4% more to produce, and the processing plant costs four times as much to build, since the fines now need their own flotation circuit and tailings facility.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

How magnanimous of Michael Intrator at $CRWV to halt his 10b5-1 stocks sales. Checking filings. Looks like he sold 10MM shares for roughly $1B in gross proceeds (mostly this year). The three founders combined cashed out $3.3B of stock since the IPO. No doubt this stock can be a fantastic trading vehicle given its volatility (250% implied vol into the print), but if you're thinking of this in any longer term context, management already told you what they REALLY think of the business on a longer term horizon....

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks
GNCGF · long

Greencore Group PLC

Greencore is the UK’s leading fresh prepared food producer, pitched as undervalued with potential to nearly double within 12–24 months.

GNCGF $3.2B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $832M
The Mikro Kap 6 clicks

FTAI Aviation Deep Dive

FTAI Aviation is converting retired CFM56 jet engines into 25-megawatt data-center generators, supported by a $1.465 billion order likely…

FTAI $17B
CV's Substack 1 click

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