New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

At the US$5.30/lb copper base case in American West Metals’ $AWMLF new pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its Storm copper project, the post-tax NPV (discounted at 7%) is US$119M, with a 32.8% IRR and a 3.6-year payback. The PEA (Storm’s first-pass study) showed US$149M at an 8% discount rate and a 46% IRR, on US$4.60/lb copper. So the PFS uses a higher copper price and a lower discount rate, and still values Storm lower. The PFS’s own sensitivity table shows ~US$110M at the PEA’s 8% rate, and post-tax FCF over the mine life fell to US$179M from US$191M, even though revenue rose to US$1.25B from US$839M. Extending the sensitivity table, each 10% drop in copper takes ~US$52M off the NPV. So at the PEA’s US$4.60/lb, 13.2% below the PFS’s price, Storm would be worth ~US$51M at 7% (US$118.9M − 1.32 × US$51.6M), about a third of the PEA’s US$149M. In other words, the higher copper price, not the mine plan, holds up the PFS’s NPV. The PFS also runs a spot case at US$6.53/lb copper (as of November 2), where the NPV rises to US$233M, with a 55.1% IRR and a 2.7-year payback. A 10% move in copper shifts the NPV by US$50-52M, and a 10% change in recovery by US$46-48M, against ~US$4M for a 10% change in capex. So the capex increase matters less to the value than to the funding. At ~US$52M per 10% move in copper, the NPV would reach zero near US$4.10/lb, ~36% below the November 9 price. At US$4.75/lb, the average London Metal Exchange (LME) price since January 2024 (per the PFS), the NPV would be ~US$65M. Copper is also near the top of its range, as the PFS’s US$6.53/lb spot price is just 3.1% below the US$6.74/lb LME high since January 2024. So I value Storm on the PFS’s US$5.30/lb base case rather than spot, since first copper is still at least three years away.

Investor Letters

All letters

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks
FTAI · long

Ftai Aviation LTD

FTAI Aviation, valued near $23 billion at roughly $226 per share, is presented as a long investment.

FTAI $17B
Value Investors Club

Blue Chips

Project Kilby, a planned Texas behind-the-meter data center twice Project Stargate’s size, would reshape Permian gas flows and boost demand…

GEV $215B
Doomberg

A cheap stock hidden on the OTC

Vaso Corporation’s $33 million market cap is 65% cash, and its GE HealthCare imaging-sales unit generates $6.6–7 million in operating…

VASO $50M
Deep Value Insights

SAP: Deep Dive Analysis

SAP’s deeply embedded ERP suite creates high switching costs as it moves customers to cloud subscriptions and embeds AI in core workflows.

SAP $277B
Hated Moats

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 83 of 283

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

375 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.