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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW of geothermal power by 2030.

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 2 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

I built a tool last night that scrapes ammo and gun prices across hundreds of different websites. I am seeing 9mm ammo prices up 47% y/y and .22 LR up 50% y/y. Gun market is still soft but the ammo market is tightening pretty fast and guns will likely follow. With dems sweeping I think demand for ammo and guns will continue to outpace supply. $RGR looking good here with Beretta taking massive position. I like $SWBI here too. If Olin wasn't going through that merger with Huntsman I would probably drop my nuts on the table here with their ammo division but I hate big mergers.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

You heard 10x demand for compute > supply from $CRWV today. Hearing from $TSM today on Nikkei Forum: "The demand on our leading node [most advanced] silicon is insatiable" Customers "want to get [their] hands around any compute capability they can have. It's truly an insatiable environment." Q: Whether AI demand was slowing? A: "we did not see any sign of slowdown" Q: How demand compared with TSMC’s ability to supply A: "the demand actually is still far above our capability today to supply." TSMC identified power and substrates as bottlenecks customers were encountering. On the mid-to-high-50s annualized growth estimate for AI accelerator revenue from 2024 to 2029. Wei said "it probably will be higher." Describing things as "insatiable" from a traditionally conservative company... doesn't quite look like any collapse in AI demand.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$CRWV ER and read through for $NBIS and other Neoclouds: “We have 10x as much qualified demand as available capacity”. - interest in 2028 capacity already amounts to several times what CoreWeave has available - CoreWeave raised prices by 25% in July, +10% later in Q3, and more to come in Q4 - Ampere and Hopper rental pricing rose 30–50% quarter over quarter (older GPUs) - better financing conditions (higher prepayments, lower interest 7–7.5% for new loans) - positive adjusted net income in the first half of 2028. So we’re seeing higher pricing esp. for older GPUs…better financing mechanics, and extreme demand imbalance where you have 10x demand > supply. Same issues are there for this company in specific with interest rates, but I’d argue other Neoclouds are in a better spot. But it’s wild to witness AI infrastructure names crash while demand keeps growing

Investor Letters

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Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and…

SPGI $136BICE $96B
Global Outperformers 3 clicks
WDC · long

Western Digital CORP

Western Digital, a hard-disk manufacturer, is pitched as a long after significant share-price moves deter investors.

WDC $106B
Value Investors Club 7 clicks

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $132B
Invariant 6 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $20B
Irrational Analysis 3 clicks

The Week That Was

Treasury yields surged as the Fed’s expected hike shifted to December, while Micron beat guidance and forecast $61.5 billion in quarterly…

JBL $26BSTX $105B
CV's Substack 1 click

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