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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Expert Call | Lumentum & Marvell Deal

Marvell’s all-stock acquisition of Lumentum targets optical supply, DSP synergies and AI data-center demand, while adding fab integration, customer-retention and regulatory risks.

LITE $48B
P Equity Research 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I checked Root’s $ROOT Q3 against the base and bear cases from my August update, after the car insurer fell 24.1% in two days. $ROOT bought back 290,694 shares in Q3 at an average of $53.15/share ($15.5M), leaving $38.8M on the authorization, ~6% of today’s market cap. At $43.37/share, the market cap is $659M on 15.2M shares, or 2.0x the $327.0M book value as of September 30. Net of the $261.6M held outside the insurance subsidiaries, you’re paying $397M for the insurance operations, or 3.9x nine-month net income annualized (Q4 is the seasonally weak quarter). In August, my base case was $55-80/share (2.5-3.5x book on an 18-22% ROE), and my bear case $35-45 (1.5-2.0x book, with ROE compressing to 12-15%). Q3’s annualized ROE was ~18%, the bottom of the base case, while the stock now trades at the top of the bear case’s multiple.

Investor Letters

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $48B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 4 clicks
MOH · long

Molina Healthcare

Molina Healthcare faces unprecedented Medicaid managed-care cost inflation and margin compression after its shares declined since October…

MOH $11B
Value Investors Club

AnaptysBio (ANAB)

AnaptysBio’s Jemperli royalty receipts rise after a Sagard financing obligation ends in 2027.

ANAB $1.4B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

What I've Been Reading

Yesway, Dollar General and Expedia feature in a research roundup spanning convenience retail, discount stores and AI-driven travel search.

YSWY $1.6BDG $30B
Stock Thoughts

Dance with the Devil (Nasdaq: ILPT)

ILPT’s Hawaii ground leases and US warehouse portfolio are improving, while five-year fixed-rate refinancing eases the debt burden created…

ILPT $416M
Real Assets, Real Value

Everyone Bought the Shovels

Element Solutions sells consumable chipmaking chemistry, with a $75 target from $44 based on an AI-driven semiconductor-materials rerating.

ESI $8.1B
Mispriced Assets

Under The Hood - Rollins ($ROL)

Rollins ($ROL) pairs automatically renewing pest-control contracts with route density and family-business acquisitions, producing 24…

ROL $19B
Bearhold Research

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