Constellation Software 3Q26 Recap: When 2% is Good
Constellation Software’s 3Q26 organic revenue grew 2%, while $609 million of acquisitions and improving acquired-business margins supported cash flow despite U.S. healthcare declines.
Constellation Software’s 3Q26 organic revenue grew 2%, while $609 million of acquisitions and improving acquired-business margins supported cash flow despite U.S. healthcare declines.
$CRWV has ~$10bn of unsecured HY notes, all yielding 14-15%. There’s also another ~$11bn of converts. That’s ~$21bn of unsecured claims, sitting behind the secured debt that funds the GPUs. Here's the latest market pricing on the HY notes (converts excluded):
Who had Hyperscalers accelerating to fastest growth rates since Covid at the same time Anthropic massively decelerates on their bingo card for 3Q26? I think very few 3-6mo ago, but here we are! $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN
The asset base is too large and diversified to ever underwrite loan by loan. The thesis is that the private credit apocalypse is exaggerated, $OWL became the poster child given its reliance on the HNW channel, and the market is assigning far too little value to its non-credit assets and durable fee-generating franchise.
@FrenchV33921 Already there with $CRWV and $IREN IS $NBIS worse?
@sidecarcap This is exactly what I think is happening with $SLM $KSPI and maybe $YB. $KNSL too
@Pembrokestcap But isn’t $OWL reputation, and by extension their ability to raise capital, permanently impaired? Who cares if they own valuable GP stakes and real estate businesses that never tapped the high-net-worth channel? Isn’t the entire franchise structurally compromised?
Shorts that aren't actually that overvalued (a 10+15% grower trading at 30x earnings can be overvalued, but still easily trade to 40-50x). Sizing is very important. Stuff like $CBA, $WDFC, $WMT, $WING have been some of my biggest winners this year with no catalyst.
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DoorDash and Google.
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