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Monday, November 9, 2026

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41 Stock Pitches (2nd-8th November) 🟢

Blue Dolphin Energy trades near 1.3 times earnings as its Texas refinery benefits from diesel shortages, with projected 2026 EBITDA of $111 million against a $125 million market value.

BDCO $147M
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@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

$AAOI earnings: - $1B-$1.5B LTA disclosed with a hyperscaler customer - 2nd LTA coming soon, worth 5x+ more (implying $5B-$7.5B), in its final stages. This LTA explicitly includes lasers, very material for AOI that they're moving to supplying merchant lasers. - "The demand is exceptional, unprecedented. I do not know what kind of superlatives to use to describe the amount of demand that we are seeing out there in the industry" Yeah this commentary doesn't sound like any optical demand would slowed down if it's "exceptional + unprecedented" - Rejected hyperscaler slowdowns from political changes with little effect. - AOI Can only meet 80% of demand, in case there's a kind of reduction, the demand would be bigger than AOI future capacity - Moving toward other financing methods than ATMs (thank god), US bank loans similar to what $NBIS is doing, I'd argue is positive, given FCF coming in later. - Delay in meeting capacity projections into H1 2027. $471m/month targets pushed back into H2 2027, due to electrical procurement and construction logistics, which existed before Texas governor changed. This part is negative part of the earnings call. To qualify this, I don't quite think hyperscalers would sign a $5-$7.5B LTA if they didn't think AOI couldn't deliver. - Near term Q4 guidance cut was DSP availability. AOI revised near term projections down slightly to $385M and $420M in revenue. Said DSP supply would ease early 2027 and that they're qualifying more suppliers. - Gave hiked H2 2027 capacity projections from their expansion, near term revision downward. - 4 to 5 ongoing UHP laser eval/quals for CPO UHP laser segment alone would far outweigh their $3.8B MC, especially if you're executing on multi billion dollar contracts with 60%+ gross margin laseres. TLDR: - Long term visibility improved a lot, with est. $6-$9B cumulative LTA contracts coming soon. - Shift toward supplying CPO lasers merchant is fundamentally material vs. just transceivers, and what I wanted to hear - Capacity guidance hiked into H2 2027, near term delays from electrical/DSP related procurement + installation. I still think we're reached peak fear levels, but wouldn't dismiss disappointing short term procurement delays + Q4 DSP bottlenecks. AOI likely signing an additional +$5-$7.5B in likely hyperscaler LTAs and entering merchant UHP CPO market dominanted by $LITE + $COHR. Factored in with the valuation drop has made medium-long term opportunities very compelling.

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NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click
MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
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