Big Short Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Could Burst
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom rests on a handful of companies and hundreds of billions in infrastructure spending, risking recession and a sharp market correction.
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom rests on a handful of companies and hundreds of billions in infrastructure spending, risking recession and a sharp market correction.
Here is a link to our Q1 2024 letter. $SWI $IMXI $ALTG $GENI $RTO $RCM $SLCA @jonrice80 @taylor_hndrson
Meanwhile disintermediation by OEMs going direct is accelerating. See recent commentary from partners $CSCO, $PANW $DELL, etc. $PLUS has zero discernable benefit from $NVDA and AI.
Answer: aggressive revenue booking, financing sales, selling products at/ below cost to boost revenue and hoping to “then try to build it back up over time” per CEO. Contrast $PLUS performance w competitor and industry leader $CDW.
$PLUS Numbers don’t add up. 50% sales $CSCO product (sales -13% MRQ, guided -11%). MRQ $PLUS sales +13% (reported yesterday). Earnings call question: “OEM Cisco have talked about bottlenecks, weak orders. You’ve been unscathed…how are you outperforming the market significantly?”
$EXLS Highly innovative founder-CEO rapidly taking share w AI-based services. High-teens topline growth w expanding margins, higher value-add mix to attractive end-markets. 17x P/E yet to reflect business transformation. 100% FCF to buybacks. Winning customers from $ACN $DXC $WIT
Props to @HedgeyeRetailJM and @HedgeyeRetailRW for a bang up job on this $CVNA short deck. The rabbit hole is indeed deep on this one. Accounting here is squirrely to put it kindly. @SECGov should be investigating Carvana to save honest believers from getting hurt. Even if they're not, we are...
$GMS Underfollowed building products distributor, HSD growth, favorable mix shift/ margin, tracking to beat estimates, trading at 10x EPS, 7x EBITDA. Peers at >50% higher multiples. $HD just acquired lower quality peer SRS for 17x EBITDA. GMS = $240 or +150% at that multiple.
@Aureliusltd28 I like $FCNCA from this list.
Adult-use cannabis rescheduling would open Altria’s 42% Cronos stake to a U.S. market rerating.
Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.
Nextracker's $6 billion order book supports cross-selling battery storage and inverters, now 22% of revenue, though acquisition-led growth…
DoorDash and Google.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faced new revelations after a week of political upheaval and a broad technology-stock sell-off.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faces an unverified allegation involving a Chinese spy.
Week ahead lists Nvidia, earnings, inflation and PPI releases alongside Iran conflict developments.
Moody’s ratings business faces potential deceleration, while AI-related debt issuance and anti-data-center politics pose less risk than…
Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…
Intel’s EMIB-T, glass-core roadmap and 2027 ABF substrate supply outlook are the focus of an expert call.
China’s housing downturn has cut some flat values 40% since 2021, curbing discretionary spending and sharpening a portfolio focus on…
Kimberly-Clark’s Kenvue merger targets $1.9 billion in synergies by 2029, supporting roughly 6% long-term EPS growth and continued dividend…
Procore CFO Rachel Pyles discusses accelerating growth and economies of scale after an upbeat third-quarter report.
Diageo’s first quarter under CEO Dave Lewis showed modest price changes and regional growth outside North America, supporting a turnaround…
Tower Semiconductor reported $526 million in quarterly revenue and extended photonics contracts through 2029, while its low-loss silicon…
Applied Materials trades at 17.93x forward earnings, with analysts forecasting more than 45% EPS growth through 2028 and a net-cash balance…
AMD’s data-center revenue rose 97%, while MercadoLibre, TIC Solutions, XPEL and Zoetis also report quarterly results.
Amazon's AWS revenue rose 39.3% with a 38.7% margin, while heavy CapEx is expected to keep free cash flow negative through next year.
Steve Eisman links a Democratic midterm sweep and CoreWeave concerns to an AI narrative shift as the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and Nasdaq 5.5%.
Ovintiv’s C$1.26 billion purchase of Logan Energy at roughly 2x proved reserve value points to further consolidation among Canadian oil…
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