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Monday, November 9, 2026

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Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

I think the Oracle credit story could look very different in 2028 and 2029 from what the market is pricing today. $ORCL has priced $10 billion of stock and $10 billion of bonds to fund its AI buildout. Management expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028. The interesting part is how Oracle gets there. AI customers need the capacity, and those customers also have relationships with the suppliers building the infrastructure. Customer prepayments and supplier financing can move some of the funding further upstream rather than leaving Oracle to finance everything itself. I'd also watch whether support can extend further up the supply chain. The final cost of a data center is not the same as the underlying cost of the components, so there may be room for suppliers or their suppliers to provide credit backing with less exposure than the headline project value. The actual contracts and who bears losses matter here. Oracle's five-year CDS has been trading close to 300 basis points. I'm curious about the other side of that trade: who is underwriting the protection, and what happens if Oracle reaches positive free cash flow and the fear around AI infrastructure financing eases? Selling protection is still a risky bet. A premium can look attractive right up until the underlying credit deteriorates, and spreads can widen before the trade works. But if Oracle delivers the capacity and its customers pay for it, I think the picture in 2028–29 could be very different from today's gloomy consensus.

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NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Agentic AI: Winners and Losers

Meta’s Muse reached 3 million downloads and 700,000 daily users within 10 days, with forecasts of up to $28.5 billion in annual revenue…

META $1.6T
Jimmy's Journal

On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $13B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks

The Week Ahead

Micron’s November revenue guide will test whether an 86% gross margin reflects a structural memory shortage or a cyclical peak, while…

MU $743BNVDA $4.6T
CV's Substack
CBOE · long

Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $36B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

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