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Monday, November 9, 2026

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@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

Initial notes on $MRVL's rumoured $LITE acquisition: 1. Why?! - $LITE's CEO has said they're sold out into 2029. So do management think the InP laser shortage is shorter than what their orders suggest? Need more clarity on why Lumentum would green light this. - With lasers sold out into 2029, I think owning the fab might be the only way $MRVL can guarantee supply for FY28 growth. So maybe Marvell and Lumentum have different reads on the InP laser shortage? 2. This has to be mostly stock. - $MRVL has ~$3.9B cash vs. $5.0B debt. Combined run-rate EBITDA is circa $7-7.5B (my numbers), so I think staying investment grade caps new debt at around $15-20B. - At a ~30% premium that leaves $85-90B+ paid in stock, with $LITE holders owning ~30% of the combined company. - I feel that’s a lot of Marvell to hand over. 3. I think the strategy is much better than the reaction. - $MRVL are essentially buying the part of the optical link that survives the move to CPO which is a pretty smart hedge on their own DSP franchise. - Marvell announced Inphi around 6 years ago (~$10B in cash + stock), and that deal built the core of MRVL's optics business. - This is basically the same move just one layer down, from DSP to laser, stacked on Celestial AI. - Probably a good signal that Marvell are running the same optics playbook again? 4. Dilution. - $MRVL trades on about 52x run rate EPS. - $LITE is about 60x on its FQ1 guide at tonight's AH price and about 70x with a 30% premium. - That's ~15% dilutive to Marvell's run-rate EPS (my rough napkin math number) assuming a 30% premium, ~$17.5B of new debt at ~5%, and the rest in stock at $228. (Again, very rough numbers). - It only turns accretive if Lumentum keeps outgrowing Marvell at today's guided rates (+24% q/q vs +15%) for another five or six quarters. - I think that's achievable while the laser shortage lasts, but I feel the whole deal ends up being a bet on how long that is. 5. Fewer lasers on the open market. - If LITE's output gets prioritised for $NVDA and Marvell's own modules, everyone else buying LITE EMLs and CW lasers gets tighter allocation. - I think that's bullish for laser pricing at $COHR and for other laser sources like $SIVE (lol). - Feels like the module makers that depend on LITE lasers are the quiet losers. 6. Channel conflict. - Marvell is the leading DSP supplier to 800G/1.6T module makers, and LITE already sells its own modules through Cloud Light. - I think Innolight and Eoptolink start shifting DSP share to $AVGO and $CRDO? - I feel hyperscalers will push harder to second-source lasers from $COHR.
@orrdavid

David Orr on X

Look at this last chart carefully. April implied that the next few months would get more expensive, and they did. July implied that the next couple of months would get more expensive, and it was wrong. And AI traded sideways. September again implied that October would go up, and October indeed went up a lot! And $SOXX tried to rally hard,m and then failed hard, even though October's curve suggests prices are still going up over the next month or two? It's hard to say exactly. What I am confident amount: Once the more modern compute starts going down rather than up, the AI trade will have already imploded many months beforehand.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) detained just $13,770 of TOYO Co., Ltd’s $TOYO solar cells in May, yet by $TOYO’s own account, the review affected its Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings. CBP enforces the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), which presumes that any product made even partly in China’s Xinjiang region involves forced labor, so the agency can hold solar shipments until the importer documents where its polysilicon came from. The cells were worth little, but U.S. customers pulled back. $TOYO’s largest customer (35% of H1 2026 revenue) placed no orders in June, Ethiopian production lines sat idle that month, and moving their costs into G&A drove most of a ~$3.4M rise in other G&A costs in Q2. Rhone Resch, $TOYO’s Chief Strategy Officer, said on the Q2 call on August 19 that the total amount detained was “not all that significant,” and he was optimistic the detentions would be released in Q3, which ended September 30. By October 6, 2026, when $TOYO held its Analyst Day, CBP had detained four of $TOYO’s cell shipments, though $TOYO didn’t say how many cells or dollars they carried. Resch called the detentions “almost a normal part of the process,” and on the Q2 call, he had said CBP moves a company to an expedited path “after about four reviews or so.” He also introduced Ana Hinojosa as part of the $TOYO team, noting she was CBP’s former Executive Director of Trade Remedy Law Enforcement. She told analysts the company was “very optimistic that the resolution of the detentions is a day to a week away.” I found no announcement of a release in $TOYO’s press releases or filings through October 26. VSUN, the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of, has had the same problem. Abalance, the Japanese group that controls both companies, disclosed that CBP refused entry to part of VSUN’s panels from Vietnam in January 2026, costing it ¥2,082M (~$13.3M at today’s exchange rate), and that solar products from two major overseas subsidiaries, which it didn’t name, were detained under the UFLPA. I’m not comfortable with the detentions yet, since CBP doesn’t appear to have a deadline to decide, and June already proved that customers stop placing orders while $TOYO’s cells are under review.

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