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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

A confirmed Anthropic IPO would lower the odds that Broadcom $AVGO ever pays on its backstop of about $42 billion of senior debt owed by the vehicle that leases Google TPUs to Anthropic. A separate financing vehicle borrows the money, buys the TPUs and leases them to Anthropic, and Anthropic's lease payments cover that vehicle's debt. If Anthropic can't keep paying, Broadcom has agreed to cover part of the lenders' losses on about $42 billion of that senior debt. The support is there if Anthropic goes bust or falls into serious difficulty. It is not a promise to repay the entire amount. An IPO does not change the dollar size of that exposure. It changes the chance Broadcom has to pay. Up to $100 billion of new equity gives Anthropic more room to keep meeting the lease, so the vehicle is more likely to keep servicing its debt, and Broadcom is less likely to be called. A failed listing would raise that chance. In our view, confirmation of the listing is a modest positive for AVGO. The obligation stays. A confirmed listing makes it less likely to be called, and that shrinks the overhang.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

The neocloud debt pullback is about how long delivery takes, and the useful response is a targeted renegotiation that pays lenders for more time, not a liquidation of the borrowers. Demand for AI compute is huge, and investors were eager to fund the buildout. That demand is still there. What is drying up is debt for neoclouds that cannot show revenue outside AI data centers. In our view the pullback is almost entirely about timing. Compute gets billed only once the site is built, powered and staffed, long after the cash has gone in. That wait is the squeeze. As a hypothetical, if the neoclouds could stand compute up and start billing ten times faster, the problem would ease. They would be generating revenue and cash flow to fund more of the next investment themselves, and outside investors could ask less interest on future money. On the latest reported figures, $CRWV's operating cash flow is positive but its free cash flow is negative, because the build is still being paid for. Lenders are now pulling back from neoclouds that have no revenue outside AI data centers. The race between neoclouds pushed CoreWeave too far. They took the debt probably knowing the delivery timetable was tight, because a firm that is not aggressive enough ends up with no compute at all. If lenders call a default and CoreWeave is then bankrupted and liquidated, the credit investors are left holding the GPUs. Taking the collateral does not make it earn. Someone still has to power, staff and bill the site, so the lenders must find another company to run it. In our view they lose money net-net, the handover is costly, and the buildout stalls to a degree. Amazon, Microsoft and Google can keep funding GPUs from businesses that already earn. A stall on the independent side leaves more AI compute with them, which in our view is bad for an AI-led economy. Who would buy a failed neocloud is still open. Blanket leniency would be a moral-hazard problem. If every late project gets time for free, covenants stop binding and the next borrower takes the same risk again. The exception here is that the demand behind the loans is still there. A lender can give more time to a project that will cover its debt once it is billing, and be paid for the wait with a higher margin, a fee or upside. When the cash flow recovers, that is the lender's reward. Musk predicting that 200-plus neoclouds will fail or consolidate makes the pullback worse. More credit investors step back, and the wait gets longer for everyone still building.

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NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click
MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

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