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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

We think AI power users are overestimating how far enterprise adoption has progressed. Anthropic’s S-1 says over half the Fortune 500 were $100k+ annual customers as of September. Among those publicly traded customers, Anthropic spending averaged under 0.1% of total expenses in Q3 2026. That measures spending on one provider, so it cannot establish whether their AI deployments are succeeding. But the expectation gap is familiar. When you spend all day using the best models, it is easy to assume the rest of the economy is close behind. Building and running an enterprise’s own AI applications is a much harder undertaking. In Part 2 of our recent $NVDA report, we argued that successful adoption remains concentrated in a few exceptionally capable organisations, with Palantir ($PLTR) and coding agents the clearest examples. For Nvidia, adoption through clouds and model providers still leaves compute demand concentrated in intermediaries with the scale and incentive to develop their own chips. It needs more enterprises buying its compute directly. This is why we continue to see Palantir as a strategic enabler. The ability to help enterprises put AI into production remains scarce, even as access to capable models spreads. From Convequity’s “Nvidia at 16x Earnings: Bargain or Value Trap?” (Pt.2), 20 Oct 2026.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

A tape library maker fired its CFO on October 9, 2026, without giving a reason, and its stock is now down 41.3% from its October 2 peak. Within two months, it replaced both of its top finance officers. Yet it still expects to meet or exceed its September-quarter guidance. That company is Quantum $QMCO, which makes tape libraries that companies use to archive data for years. $QMCO has fallen to $20.25/share, down 22.4% since my August update, but still more than double the $9.42 investors paid in its June private placement (PIPE). Worth mentioning that the larger hard drive and flash memory stocks have fallen from their 2026 highs as well, through the October 27 close: → SanDisk $SNDK: Down 44.1% to $1,304.84/share. → Seagate $STX: Down 39.0% to $667.85/share. → Western Digital $WDC: Down 49.0% to $380.88/share. So $QMCO fell about as far as the group, but in under four weeks instead of four months, and mostly after the CFO was fired. Besides the firing, three accounting issues hang over $QMCO’s September-quarter 10-Q, due November 9: 1) Material weaknesses: $QMCO’s June-quarter 10-Q still reports material weaknesses (the most serious kind of gap in a company’s financial reporting controls) in revenue recognition, inventory, and income taxes. 2) Restatements: None of the weaknesses has led to a material misstatement, but $QMCO has restated its financial statements before, in May 2024 and again in August 2025. 3) Late filings: Its June-quarter 10-Q was officially filed on August 11, a day after its 40-day deadline, and its FY2026 10-K needed a notice of late filing in June. Still, tape demand is growing, and no $QMCO insider has sold since my August update: → Tape: Secondary storage, which $QMCO’s 10-K describes as “primarily tape storage systems,” doubled from a year earlier to $37.0M in the June quarter, 46% of total revenue, up from 29%. → Industry: The LTO Program, the group of $HPE, $IBM, and $QMCO that sets the LTO tape standard, reported on September 1, 2026 that tape capacity shipped in Q1 2026 rose 57% from Q1 2025. → Supply: By CEO Hugues Meyrath’s account, $IBM’s drive supply, not demand, limits how much $QMCO can sell for now. → Insiders: No $QMCO insider has bought or sold shares in the open market since my August update, including Dialectic, the activist fund managed by director John Fichthorn. $QMCO’s EV is $825.3M, counting its warrants, options, and RSUs. That’s 2.8x TTM revenue, down from 4.9x at the October 2 peak, but still 34.4x the September quarter’s $6M ±$1M of adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized. So is $QMCO’s drop a pullback worth buying, or a warning about the numbers? That’s what I answer in my new update on $QMCO, including my bear, base, and bull cases.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

On integrations will see $DOCU but others like sign now. There are dozens of signature solutions from panda, adobe, and many many others. All with cheaper solutions. And to say theres no enterprise features or some sort of ecosystem/marketplace - that does not stand. Apple, Exxon and other major corporations use Sign now. I got a signature sheet from Rivian from box directly (and it's not docusign white labeled). If you're looking for the reversal in software squeeze, DOCU at current pricing and competitive positing in an increasingly Agentic world has to surface as a weak story moving forward that trades at a premium to almost anything else you will look at.

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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