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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

Crypto Basket Update: COIN, CRCL & HOOD Within our “buy the dip” crypto basket we are de-prioritizing Coinbase relative to Circle. $COIN lagged amid prolonged CLARITY Act uncertainty and faces revenue risk from the ongoing USDC custody renegotiation with $CRCL. Broader Bitcoin structural concerns (miners shifting to AI) also temper the trading-volume outlook. Circle stands out as the preferred stablecoin exposure. Stablecoins are the natural token/payment rail for AI agents — a structural driver distinct from trading hype — with added tailwinds from interest rate sensitivity and attractive asymmetry after the pullback. $HOOD is held at lower conviction as one of several interchangeable infrastructure bets. We are maintaining current weights across the basket but leaning toward adding to Circle as the highest-conviction name.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Palantir remains our marquee software conviction. Growth is accelerating as ontology and governance become essential for secure AI deployment in government and enterprise. The bear case is model dependency, but this is where $PLTR shines. Enterprises risk losing their information and knowhow edge by feeding proprietary data to foundation model providers — their own suppliers. Satya Nadella’s “Reverse Information Paradox” captures it perfectly. Microsoft did it with Lotus/WordPerfect (Excel/Word), and Anthropic is already demonstrating such practices with Claude Design competing with Figma — and countless other examples too. Palantir’s strong data control and governance moat positions it to avoid the trap. Developing its own foundation model could be a game-changer, offering true IP protection.
@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

I've been as skeptical of the semi hype/froth as any of the bears - but also open minded as per our process. We've largely avoided material positions on the long side in the space, with the exception of some trades here and there and some 2nd/3rd order beneficiaries that we identified early-ish. Also short $SOXX in decent size. But that said, and sticking with the open-minded process - it's pretty rare to see gaps between fwd EPS estimates and stock price as wide as what is visible in $SNDK here:
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Exceptional idiosyncratic short opportunities emerging from the on/off semi trade that is largely indiscriminately moving the markets and sectors each day. (been long opportunities that emerged too) Private credit exposed names have ripped off financial sector rotation and likely some short squeeze in heavily exposed names - names like $FG $MET $MFC (continue to tout these until their exposure is recognized by the market) Software - each name needs to be looked at on its own accord, the broad software is dead or alive from ai does not work. Big rally across the board has left more disrupted names like $PCTY and $PAYC up for the year now. Plenty of others that look good to build sort positions against (especially if you have long software/dats service provider exposure) Dispersion past quarter should set up some very interesting opportunities that should have to stand on their own fundamentals when earnings come

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 4 clicks

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